Forecasting in a Pandemic

Clarke McEwan Accountants

Understand where you stand now

Businesses fail (or fail to thrive) for a myriad of reasons, but the precursor is often a failure to understand what is occurring and what to monitor. Strategically, managers need to be on top of their numbers to identify and manage problems before they get out of hand. If you do not know what the key drivers of your business are - the things that make the difference between doing well and going under - then it's time to find out.

Understanding your cost structure

Do you know what your real cost of doing business is? Your breakeven point is the level of sales activity where your business is neither making a profit or a loss. Calculate your breakeven point by dividing your fixed expenses by your gross profit margin. This figure represents the level of sales income you need to breakeven.

Understanding your breakeven point is crucial particularly when supply chains are impacted.

Not only will your breakeven point assist you to monitor business performance, it's critical when deciding whether or not to offer a discount. If your breakeven point is well below your current operating level then you have a good buffer in your profits to manage growth, invest in further capital opportunities, and to protect yourself against further downturns in operating performance. And before you say "I know that," ask yourself how many people actually put this theory into practice. Even some of the largest businesses have been caught out on this one and tie up valuable resources in unprofitable projects and products.

Putting up your prices during down times is not an act of social betrayal. If your prices have increased you should flow these through unless you are comfortable making less for the same amount of effort, or you are in an industry that is so price sensitive you have no choice but to follow the lead of larger businesses.

Discounting creates a leverage impact on profits. By discounting you are giving away some or all of your profits. The key is to understand the impact and just how far you can go. For example, a business with a 30% gross profit margin that offers a 25% discount (certainly nothing unusual about that in today's market) needs a 500% increase in sales volume just to maintain the same position – and, in almost all cases, that's just not going to happen. The result generally is that the business trades below its breakeven point and generates a loss. You can only do that for a limited amount of time (and some of your larger competitors might be engaging in a discounting war with you in an attempt to bury you once and for all).

If your business needs cash and needs it quickly, discounting might be the only way to shift stock but understand the implications.

Plan, review and adjust

Your budget should be your best estimate of what is likely to occur based on current knowledge. To manage change, you can scenario plan where your budget forms the baseline, but you also forecast best and worst case scenarios based on potential risks and their likelihood (for example, the impact of another lockdown). Or, the simplest method is to use your budget as a baseline and regularly review and adjust depending on current conditions.

The greatest risk to your profit is unlikely to come from your cost structure. It is more likely to be revenue volatility. Keep your eye on your cost structure and make sensible cuts where appropriate. But, in your search for savings don't remove your essential revenue generating capacity that you need.

A lack of profit will eventually erode your business, but not enough cash will kill it stone dead. Businesses will fail because they don't manage their cash position. Plan, track and measure your cashflow. This not only means closely monitoring your debtor collections and inventory but also running a rolling three month cashflow position. This should provide an early warning of brewing problems.

Manage your debt levels carefully (your bank is likely to). While there is nothing wrong with debt, it is likely that the banks will be closely watching customer accounts. Where you have loan facilities in place make sure that you understand the loan terms and any debt covenants that you have entered into. These covenants could include regular reporting to the bank, debtor and working capital ratios, or debt to equity ratios. Where the banks may have been more relaxed about these in the past, this year will be different. If you believe that you need additional funding, talk to your bank early and don't wait until the last minute. You'll need to present your case on why you need it, how much, for how long and when it will be repaid.

Cash flows, operating budgets, cost control and debt management all need to be part of your business management. The more in control you are the lower your risk position.

Understand the external environment

The COVID-19 pandemic has implications well beyond the economy; it has changed how business operates and how consumers act. While comparisons are made to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, the reality is, we have no case study. There is no rule book for the post pandemic road to recovery as this is not an economic event. The pandemic pulls the economy up short curtailing both supply and demand; businesses are not operating at capacity and fewer people are working.

The Federal Budget is released on 6 October and we're expecting to see the Government invest heavily in job creating projects. Many of these will be focussed on infrastructure. Each of these projects will have a flow through effect to the broader economy. We'll bring you our insights the day after the budget and you should loom to see if there are opportunities your business can capture.

Understanding your supply chain is important. Risk manage and plan for changing conditions. For example, what is your business's ability to manage a surge in demand, do you have a small supply base and what would happen if your primary supplier went into bankruptcy, do you have a good flow of information across your supply chain or is there a lack of transparency and knowledge, do transport problems risk your ability to supply? Assess it, understand it, and manage the risks.

When it comes to demand, there is no instant fix. The RBA suggests the decline in GDP in the first half of 2020 is around 7% and the contraction in hours worked around 10%. The economic impact of the restrictions in Melbourne extend well beyond Victoria and are impacting more generally on consumer sentiment. This week we expect Australia to have a formal "recession" label added to our economy, formalising what most business operators already know.

But it is not all bad news with confidence lifting on early signs that revenue is no longer declining for the majority of Australian businesses. The latest ABS data on the impact of COVID-19 shows fewer businesses reported a decline in revenue in August (41%) compared to July (46%), and fewer still expect a decline in September (28%).

However, 35% of businesses expect it to be "difficult or very difficult" to meet financial commitments over the next three months, with small and medium businesses almost twice as likely as large businesses to fall into this category. Understandably, the response to this question is heavily weighted towards those operating under Government required restrictions and lockdowns.

The RBA is working with three scenarios for Australia's economic outlook: a baseline, upside and downside scenario. In the baseline scenario, conditions improve in the second half of 2020 and slowly improve over 2021 and 2022 but fall short of returning to pre COVID forecasts with Victoria's lockdown not materially extended and Australia's international borders remaining closed until mid 2021. The upside scenario saw no extension of the Melbourne lockdown, and further easing of Government restrictions nationally, which in turn bolster consumer confidence, encouraging spending and the reversal of GDP decline over 2020-21. The downside scenario envisages a global resurgence in infections with Australia facing periodic outbreaks and rolling lockdowns. The RBA notes that the downside scenario has a sharper fall than the increase of the upside scenario because of the damage to consumer confidence of further lockdowns.

Business investment is also expected to be relatively flat with the ABS survey showing that 37% of those surveyed had no actual or planned expenditure. Of those that are spending, IT hardware and software, and equipment and machinery topped the list. The instant asset write-off is helping to stimulate business investment in the small and medium business sector. In general, large businesses are paying down debt rather than spending and small and medium businesses have not sought to extend debt to fund investment.
Note: The material and contents provided in this publication are informative in nature only. It is not intended to be advice and you should not act specifically on the basis of this information alone. If expert assistance is required, professional advice should be obtained.

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Budget 2024-25

By Clarke McEwan • 18 Apr, 2024

Budget 2024-25 The 2024-25 Federal Budget is the third for the Albanese Government and consistent with previous years, the primary themes are expected to be the cost of living and the economic shift to net zero. According to election guru Antony Green , the window for the next election starts on Saturday, 3 August 2024, “the first possible date for an election if writs are issued on 1 July. The election window will stay open until mid-May 2025, the last date being 17 or 24 May.” No doubt, the Government will have the election in mind when it presents the Budget on 14 May at 7.30pm AEST. Stage 3 tax cuts The redesigned stage 3 tax cuts have been passed by Parliament and will apply from 1 July 2024. The amendments broadened the benefits of the tax cut by focussing on individuals with taxable income below $150,000. Investment incentives for small business It remains to be seen whether an increased instant asset write-off threshold will apply to smaller businesses in the 2024-25 income year. The increased threshold to $20,000 announced in the 2023-24 Budget still has not passed Parliament (the Senate increased the threshold to $30,000). If the intent of this measure is to encourage investment, it is essential that legislation enabling these measures is passed by Parliament in a reasonable time to give business operators the certainty they need to commit to any additional investment spending. Energy bill relief The Prime Minister has hinted at another round of energy bill relief to ease cost of living pressures for low-income households and small business. The measure is subject to support from State and Territory governments. Look out for our analysis on how the 2024-25 Federal Budget will impact you, your business, and your superannuation.

The assault on professional services

By Clarke McEwan • 18 Apr, 2024

The assault on professional services The ATO has signalled that it is willing to pursue professional services firms who divert profits to avoid tax. Two new cases before the Administrative Appeals Tribunal demonstrate how serious the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) is about making sure professional services firms - lawyers, accountants, architects, medical practices, engineers, architects etc., – are appropriately taxed. In both cases, the ATO pursued the practices using Part IVA. Part IVA is an area of the income tax law that enables the Tax Commissioner to attack schemes or arrangements undertaken to obtain a tax benefit, enabling him to cancel any benefit derived by the scheme. That is, you could have a legally viable structure in place but if the only purpose of that structure is to reduce tax, then the Commissioner can use Part IVA to remove the tax benefit. And, if Part IVA applies, you may end up with an additional tax liability as well as an administrative penalty of either 25% or 50% of the tax shortfall amount. Broadly, the cases involved a solicitor who controlled a number of practice trusts that derived profits through marketing and facilitating tax planning arrangements. While the arrangement in each case was complex and involved a large number of steps, the practice trusts ensured their business profits weren’t subject to tax by essentially making trust distributions on paper through a series of trusts and ultimately to either a company that had existing tax losses, or a tax-exempt entity. However, the real funds relating to the trust distribution (less a commission paid for the use of these entities) were ultimately received by the solicitor or their associated entities in the form of a loan. Professional practices have been in the ATO spotlight for many years now for the way they distribute profits. Back in 2021, the ATO finalised its guidance on the allocation of professional firm profits, putting in place a series of risk ratings and gateway tests. These two cases however demonstrate the ATO’s willingness to pursue the issue in the courts using the Commissioner’s powers in Part IVA. For professional services firms, it’s important to be aware that there are several ways in which the ATO can potentially challenge arrangements involving the distribution of profits from a professional practice. For example: If a trading entity derives personal services income that mainly relates to the skills and efforts of a particular individual, the ATO has certain expectations around ensuring the profits are assessed to the individual performing the work. If a trading entity doesn’t derive personal services income but income from a business structure involving a professional practice, the ATO has set out its compliance approach to targeting arrangements that don’t result in a reasonable level of profit being taxed in the hands of the individual practitioners. If a trust makes paper distributions to loss entities to ‘soak up’ deductions or losses, there are integrity rules in section 100A, another area of tax law under intense scrutiny, that need to be considered.

How much is my business worth?

By Clarke McEwan • 18 Apr, 2024

How much is my business worth? For many small business owners, their business is their largest asset and for many, one that is expected to help fund their retirement. But what is your business really worth and what sets a high value business apart? Every business owner is naturally curious about just how much their business is worth. However, for every business that sells at an attractive price, there are others that struggle to sell, let alone fetch a premium. The question is, what makes a difference? When you come to sell a business the first question is, what are you selling? In most cases, this is fixtures and fittings, plant and equipment, stock on hand, and the goodwill of the business. Generally, a buyer won’t want to purchase your liabilities or your business structure, nor will they want to collect your outstanding debtors. Most business sales become a sale of business assets. These assets are relatively easy to value with the exception of the goodwill. The value of plant and equipment and trading stock can generally be agreed. The tension tends to be around the value of the goodwill because goodwill is made up of many intangible assets that can’t be readily quantified. We can all agree that there is value in these assets but the question is, how much? Goodwill is basically the value of the future free cashflow of the business. Based on how your business is structured, it is the value of the profits the business can generate in the future. This is what a buyer is prepared to pay for. If a buyer has a reasonable certainty of profits and free cashflow in the future, then this is worth something. By comparison, a start-up business will have a higher level of risk and no certainty that profits can be generated. In general, a new business may need to trade for a number of years at a loss before it can establish itself and generate profits. Goodwill is what you are prepared to pay to avoid the risk and the ‘time to establish’ factor. So, what influences business value and what will people pay for? A history of profits, profits, and more profits Returns on capital invested (better than 30%) Strong growth and growth prospects Brand name and value A business not dependent on the owners A strong, verifiable customer list Monopoly income – exclusive territories A sustainable competitive advantage Good systems and procedures It is possible to get a price that is widely different from the norm. Unique businesses, unique circumstances, and unique opportunities can always produce ‘an out of the box’ price. If you can build something unique, then you may achieve a price beyond normal expectations. At the end of the day however, the market will set the price. If you are planning on selling your business, identify who your buyers might be. There could be a purchaser who is prepared to pay a large premium to own your business because of the accretive value or because it is pivotal to their growth strategy. And, even if you are not thinking about selling your business, the reality is that one day you will. If you build your business with this in mind, then you should look to do the things that will grow your business value from year to year.

Non-compete clauses and worker restraints under review

By Clarke McEwan • 18 Apr, 2024

Non-compete clauses and worker restraints under review A new issues paper from Treasury’s Competition Review questions whether non-competes and other restraints are limiting job opportunities and movement. A recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) survey found that 46.9% of businesses surveyed used some kind of restraint clause, including for workers in non-executive roles. The survey also found 20.8% of businesses use non-compete clauses for at least some of their staff and 68.2% for more than three-quarters of their employees. Over the last 30 years, Australia has seen a decline in job mobility. Australia is not alone in this and other advanced economies have experienced the same issue. While restraint clauses are not the only factor contributing to the decline – an ageing population and a rise in post-pandemic market concentration in some industries has also contributed, it is specifically the role of restraints that is the focus of the Competition Review issues paper (submissions close 31 May 2024). From an economic perspective, declining job mobility impacts wage growth and innovation as restraints prevent access to skilled workers within the economy. Productivity is a key concern as Australia’s productivity has declined in the last 20 years. The review states that, “The direct consequence of a non-compete clause is that it hinders competition among businesses: it disincentivises workers from leaving their current job, creating a barrier to the entry of new businesses and the expansion of existing businesses.” For business however, this is the point - restricting the knowledge developed by a worker during their employment from benefiting a competitor, limiting the likelihood of a ‘mass exodus’ of key workers from the business to a competitor, preventing clients from employing key workers, and protecting the value of the business by preventing employees from walking away with customers that were hard won, at a cost, by the business. However, the impact of restraints appears to be a psychological deterrent given that most are not contested. Of the 115 matters relating to restraints of trade between 2020 and 2023 dealt with by Legal Aid NSW, only one business commenced proceedings in court against a former worker. And, a further study indicates that where employers seek legal redress in the courts, they are more likely than not to fail. The international trend is to either ban restraints for workers under a certain income level and time limit restraints for higher paid workers, or to limit the duration of restraints generally but specify a level of compensation to the worker for the restraint period. Non-compete clauses prevent workers from joining a competitor or starting a new business in competition with their current employer for a period of time. Non-solicitation clauses prevent workers from soliciting former customers and co-workers. Non-disclosure clauses prevent workers from disclosing confidential information relating to their employment.

Warning on SMSF asset valuations

By Clarke McEwan • 18 Apr, 2024

Warning on SMSF asset valuations The ATO has issued a warning to trustees of SMSFs about sloppy valuation practices. ATO data analysis has revealed that over 16,500 self managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) have reported assets as having the same value for three consecutive years. With many of these assets residential or commercial Australian property, you can forgive the ATO for being incredulous. For trustees of SMSFs, where asset values are consistently reported at the same value, it’s likely your SMSF will be flagged for closer scrutiny by the ATO. The value of assets in your SMSF impacts on member balances and by default, can impact the amount you can contribute, ability to segregate assets for exempt current pension income, the work test exemption and access to catch-up concessional contributions. And, as we move closer to the implementation of the Division 296 $3m superannuation tax, valuations will be very important for anyone with a member balance close to or in excess of $3m. If the asset is an in-house asset, for example a related unit trust, then an accurate valuation is essential to ensure the fund remains within the 5% in-house asset limit. If the value of in-house assets rises above 5% of total assets, the asset/s need to be sold to bring the limit back below 5%. Valuing at market value Each year, the assets of your SMSF must be valued at ‘market value’ and evidence provided to your auditor. Broadly, market value is the amount that a willing buyer of the asset could reasonably be expected pay to acquire the asset from a willing seller assuming that the buyer and seller are dealing at arm’s length, and everyone acts knowledgeably and prudentially. It’s a common sense test that looks at the value you could reasonably expect to achieve for an asset. If your SMSF holds collectible and personal use assets like artwork, jewellery, motor vehicles etc., a valuation must be performed by a qualified independent valuer on disposal. This does not necessarily mean that an independent valuation needs to be completed every year but at least every three years would be prudent. If you are not utilising an independent valuer, you will still need to make an active assessment based on market conditions. For example, if you hold artwork and the artist who created your investment artwork died, has this changed the value? Are the primary and secondary markets for the artwork transacting at a higher value? Leaving the value of the asset at its acquisition price calls into question the rationale for acquiring the asset within the fund in the first place. If the asset is unlikely to add any value to your retirement savings, then should it be held in your SMSF when you could achieve a higher rate of return elsewhere? In most cases, the ATO require trustees to value an asset based on “objective and supportable data”. This means that you should document the asset being valued, a rational explanation for the valuation, and the method in which you arrived at it. Valuing real property Commercial and residential real estate does not need to be valued by an independent valuer. But, if there have been significant changes to the property, the market, or the property is unique or difficult to value, it is a good idea to have a written independent valuation from a valuer or estate agent undertaken (their report should also document the valuation method and list comparable properties). If you are completing the valuation yourself, ensure that you document the time period the valuation applies to and the characteristics that contribute to the valuation. For example, a 10 year old brick four bedroom property on 640m 2 of land in what suburb and any features that make it more or less attractive to a buyer, for example proximity to transport. And, you should access credible sales data either on similar properties in the same suburb that have sold recently or from a property data service. More than one source of data is recommended. The estimates on a lot of online property sales sites are general in nature and not reliable for a valuation of a specific property. The average price change for the suburb however could be used as supporting evidence of your valuation. For commercial property, net income yields are required to support the valuation. Where the tenants are related parties, for example your business leases a commercial property owned by your SMSF, you will need evidence that a comparative commercial rent is being paid and the rent is keeping pace with the market. Valuing unlisted companies and unlisted trust investments Valuing unlisted companies and unlisted investments can be difficult. The financials alone are not enough. But, if your SMSF invested in an unlisted company or shares in a unit trust, then there is an expectation that the trustees made the decision to make the initial acquisition based on the value of the asset, its potential for capital growth and income generation. That is, if you assessed the market value going into the investment, then it should not be a stretch to value the asset each year. The difficulty for many investors is that in unlisted companies or trusts, the initial investment was broadly equivalent to the cash requirements of the activity being undertaken. Generally, the starting point is the value of the assets in the entity and/or the consideration paid for the shares/units. For widely held shares or units, this is the entry and exit price. Where property is the only asset, then the valuation principles for valuing real property are likely to apply. Where there is no reliable data or market We’ve seen a few scenarios where the assets purchased or created by the SMSF have no equal or there is no market – the true extent of the value will only really be known when the asset is realised. These unusual items default to either a professional valuation or a viable market assessment. This might be a derivative of the purchase price or data from a related market. Valuations and the impending Division 296 tax on super earnings The value of assets will be particularly important for those with super balances close to or above the $3m threshold for the impending Division 296 tax on fund earnings. Because the tax will measure asset values and tax the growth in earnings above the $3m threshold, accurate valuations will be important to ensure that the fund does not pay tax when it does not need to, and to reduce the likelihood of anomalies artificially inflating tax payable.