Forecasting in a Pandemic

Clarke McEwan Accountants

Understand where you stand now

Businesses fail (or fail to thrive) for a myriad of reasons, but the precursor is often a failure to understand what is occurring and what to monitor. Strategically, managers need to be on top of their numbers to identify and manage problems before they get out of hand. If you do not know what the key drivers of your business are - the things that make the difference between doing well and going under - then it's time to find out.

Understanding your cost structure

Do you know what your real cost of doing business is? Your breakeven point is the level of sales activity where your business is neither making a profit or a loss. Calculate your breakeven point by dividing your fixed expenses by your gross profit margin. This figure represents the level of sales income you need to breakeven.

Understanding your breakeven point is crucial particularly when supply chains are impacted.

Not only will your breakeven point assist you to monitor business performance, it's critical when deciding whether or not to offer a discount. If your breakeven point is well below your current operating level then you have a good buffer in your profits to manage growth, invest in further capital opportunities, and to protect yourself against further downturns in operating performance. And before you say "I know that," ask yourself how many people actually put this theory into practice. Even some of the largest businesses have been caught out on this one and tie up valuable resources in unprofitable projects and products.

Putting up your prices during down times is not an act of social betrayal. If your prices have increased you should flow these through unless you are comfortable making less for the same amount of effort, or you are in an industry that is so price sensitive you have no choice but to follow the lead of larger businesses.

Discounting creates a leverage impact on profits. By discounting you are giving away some or all of your profits. The key is to understand the impact and just how far you can go. For example, a business with a 30% gross profit margin that offers a 25% discount (certainly nothing unusual about that in today's market) needs a 500% increase in sales volume just to maintain the same position – and, in almost all cases, that's just not going to happen. The result generally is that the business trades below its breakeven point and generates a loss. You can only do that for a limited amount of time (and some of your larger competitors might be engaging in a discounting war with you in an attempt to bury you once and for all).

If your business needs cash and needs it quickly, discounting might be the only way to shift stock but understand the implications.

Plan, review and adjust

Your budget should be your best estimate of what is likely to occur based on current knowledge. To manage change, you can scenario plan where your budget forms the baseline, but you also forecast best and worst case scenarios based on potential risks and their likelihood (for example, the impact of another lockdown). Or, the simplest method is to use your budget as a baseline and regularly review and adjust depending on current conditions.

The greatest risk to your profit is unlikely to come from your cost structure. It is more likely to be revenue volatility. Keep your eye on your cost structure and make sensible cuts where appropriate. But, in your search for savings don't remove your essential revenue generating capacity that you need.

A lack of profit will eventually erode your business, but not enough cash will kill it stone dead. Businesses will fail because they don't manage their cash position. Plan, track and measure your cashflow. This not only means closely monitoring your debtor collections and inventory but also running a rolling three month cashflow position. This should provide an early warning of brewing problems.

Manage your debt levels carefully (your bank is likely to). While there is nothing wrong with debt, it is likely that the banks will be closely watching customer accounts. Where you have loan facilities in place make sure that you understand the loan terms and any debt covenants that you have entered into. These covenants could include regular reporting to the bank, debtor and working capital ratios, or debt to equity ratios. Where the banks may have been more relaxed about these in the past, this year will be different. If you believe that you need additional funding, talk to your bank early and don't wait until the last minute. You'll need to present your case on why you need it, how much, for how long and when it will be repaid.

Cash flows, operating budgets, cost control and debt management all need to be part of your business management. The more in control you are the lower your risk position.

Understand the external environment

The COVID-19 pandemic has implications well beyond the economy; it has changed how business operates and how consumers act. While comparisons are made to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, the reality is, we have no case study. There is no rule book for the post pandemic road to recovery as this is not an economic event. The pandemic pulls the economy up short curtailing both supply and demand; businesses are not operating at capacity and fewer people are working.

The Federal Budget is released on 6 October and we're expecting to see the Government invest heavily in job creating projects. Many of these will be focussed on infrastructure. Each of these projects will have a flow through effect to the broader economy. We'll bring you our insights the day after the budget and you should loom to see if there are opportunities your business can capture.

Understanding your supply chain is important. Risk manage and plan for changing conditions. For example, what is your business's ability to manage a surge in demand, do you have a small supply base and what would happen if your primary supplier went into bankruptcy, do you have a good flow of information across your supply chain or is there a lack of transparency and knowledge, do transport problems risk your ability to supply? Assess it, understand it, and manage the risks.

When it comes to demand, there is no instant fix. The RBA suggests the decline in GDP in the first half of 2020 is around 7% and the contraction in hours worked around 10%. The economic impact of the restrictions in Melbourne extend well beyond Victoria and are impacting more generally on consumer sentiment. This week we expect Australia to have a formal "recession" label added to our economy, formalising what most business operators already know.

But it is not all bad news with confidence lifting on early signs that revenue is no longer declining for the majority of Australian businesses. The latest ABS data on the impact of COVID-19 shows fewer businesses reported a decline in revenue in August (41%) compared to July (46%), and fewer still expect a decline in September (28%).

However, 35% of businesses expect it to be "difficult or very difficult" to meet financial commitments over the next three months, with small and medium businesses almost twice as likely as large businesses to fall into this category. Understandably, the response to this question is heavily weighted towards those operating under Government required restrictions and lockdowns.

The RBA is working with three scenarios for Australia's economic outlook: a baseline, upside and downside scenario. In the baseline scenario, conditions improve in the second half of 2020 and slowly improve over 2021 and 2022 but fall short of returning to pre COVID forecasts with Victoria's lockdown not materially extended and Australia's international borders remaining closed until mid 2021. The upside scenario saw no extension of the Melbourne lockdown, and further easing of Government restrictions nationally, which in turn bolster consumer confidence, encouraging spending and the reversal of GDP decline over 2020-21. The downside scenario envisages a global resurgence in infections with Australia facing periodic outbreaks and rolling lockdowns. The RBA notes that the downside scenario has a sharper fall than the increase of the upside scenario because of the damage to consumer confidence of further lockdowns.

Business investment is also expected to be relatively flat with the ABS survey showing that 37% of those surveyed had no actual or planned expenditure. Of those that are spending, IT hardware and software, and equipment and machinery topped the list. The instant asset write-off is helping to stimulate business investment in the small and medium business sector. In general, large businesses are paying down debt rather than spending and small and medium businesses have not sought to extend debt to fund investment.
Note: The material and contents provided in this publication are informative in nature only. It is not intended to be advice and you should not act specifically on the basis of this information alone. If expert assistance is required, professional advice should be obtained.

Trust Resolutions – Why Timing and Evidence Matter

By Clarke McEwan • October 10, 2025
As the trustee believed the income was classified as interest (this was challenged successfully by the ATO), the trustee assumed that the income would be subject to a final Australian tax at 10%, under the non-resident withholding rules. This was clearly more favourable than having the income taxed in the hands of Australian resident beneficiaries at higher marginal rates. However, the ATO argued that the distribution resolutions were invalid and the Tribunal agreed. Why? The main reason was a lack of evidence to prove that the distribution decisions were made before the end of the relevant financial years. While there were some documents that were purportedly dated and signed “30 June”, the Tribunal wasn’t convinced that the decisions were actually made before year-end and it was more likely that these documents were prepared on a retrospective basis. The evidence suggested the decisions were probably made many months after year-end, once the accountant had finalised the financial statements. The outcome was that default beneficiaries (all Australian residents) were taxed on the income at higher rates. Timing of trust resolution decisions is critical For a trust distribution to be effective for tax purposes, trustees must reach a decision on how income will be allocated by 30 June each year (or sometimes earlier, depending on the trust deed). It might be OK to prepare the formal paperwork later, but those documents must reflect a genuine decision made before year-end. For example, let’s say a trust has a corporate trustee with multiple directors. The directors meet at a particular location on 29 June and make formal decisions about how the income of the trust will be appointed to beneficiaries for that year. Someone keeps handwritten notes of the meeting and the decisions that are made. On 5 July the minutes are typed up and signed. The ATO indicates that this will normally be acceptable, but subject to any specific requirements in the trust deed. If the ATO believes the decision was made after 30 June (or documents were backdated), the resolution can be declared invalid. In that case, you might find that one or more default beneficiaries are taxed on the taxable income of the trust or the trustee is taxed at penalty rates. This could be an unexpected and costly tax outcome and could also lead to other problems in terms of who is really entitled to the cash. Broader lessons – it’s not just about trust distributions The timing issue is not confined just to trust distribution situations. Other areas of the tax system also turn on when a decision or agreement is actually made, not just when it is eventually recorded. For example, if a private company makes a loan to a shareholder in a given year, that loan must be repaid in full or placed under a complying Division 7A loan agreement by the earlier of the due date or lodgement date of the company’s tax return for the year of the loan. If not, a deemed unfranked dividend can be triggered for tax purposes. If a complying loan agreement is put in place then minimum annual repayments normally need to be made to avoid deemed dividends being recognised for tax purposes. A common way to deal with loan repayments is by using a set-off arrangement involving dividends that have been declared by the company. However, in order for the set-off arrangement to be valid there are a number of steps that need to be followed before the relevant deadline. The ATO will typically want to see evidence which proves: · When the dividend was declared; and · When the parties agreed to set-off the dividend against the loan balance. If there isn’t sufficient evidence to prove that these steps were taken by the relevant deadline then you might find that there is a taxable unfranked deemed dividend that needs to be recognised by the borrower in their tax return. Documenting decisions before year-end The key lesson from cases like Goldenville is that documentation shouldn’t be an afterthought — lack of contemporaneous documentation can fundamentally change the tax outcome. What normally matters most is when the relevant decision is actually made, not when the paperwork is drafted. In practice, this often means: · Check relevant deadlines and what needs to occur before that deadline. · If a decision needs to be made before the deadline, ensure that a formal process is followed to do this. For example, determine whether certain individuals need to hold a meeting or whether a circular resolution could be used. · Produce contemporaneous evidence of the fact that the decision has been made. You might consider sending a brief email to your accountant or lawyer explaining the decision that has been made before the relevant deadline , basically providing a time-stamped record of the decision. · Finalise paperwork: formal minutes of meetings can sometimes be prepared after year-end, but they must accurately reflect the earlier decision. Thinking carefully about timing — and building a habit of producing clear evidence of decisions as they are made — is often the difference between a tax planning strategy working as intended and an expensive dispute with the ATO.

Accessing superannuation funds for medical treatment or financial hardship

By Clarke McEwan • October 10, 2025
Superannuation is one of the largest assets for many Australians and offers significant tax advantages, however, strict rules apply to when it can be accessed. While super is most commonly accessed at retirement, death or disability, there are limited situations where earlier access may be possible. Early access is generally available in two situations: · Financial hardship – where you are receiving a qualifying Centrelink/DVA payment for a minimum period and cannot meet immediate living expenses. · Compassionate grounds – Funding for certain specific scenarios which include preventing a mortgage foreclosure or meeting medical expenses for a life-threatening injury or illness or to alleviate severe chronic pain. Compassionate grounds access requires an application to be made to the ATO which needs to be accompanied by relevant medical certificates or mortgage information. If approved the ATO will provide instructions to the individual’s superannuation fund to release an amount to cover the expense. We have included some ATO links with more detailed information on compassionate grounds and financial hardship below. When accessing superannuation under compassionate grounds you would usually collect the relevant supporting documentation and personally make the application for approval using your MyGov account. It has come to the ATO’s attention that there may be medical and dental providers exploiting this access and assisting super fund members to access amounts for cosmetic reasons (you may have even seen advertisements pop up on your social media showing people with a new sparkling smile – and a lower super balance). The ATO’s concerns are discussed in Separating fact from fiction on accessing your super early. Superannuation fund members and SMSF trustees should be aware that there can be substantial penalties applied when super is accessed outside of the legislated conditions of release. You should never provide another party with access to your MyGov login or allow a third party to make applications on your behalf. Penalties may also apply for making false declarations. Should you have any questions or concerns relating to proposed access to your superannuation please reach out to us. Related links Accessing superannuation under compassionate grounds Accessing superannuation due to financial hardship

Government Review of Supermarket Unit Pricing: What It Could Mean for Your Business

By Clarke McEwan • October 10, 2025
Submissions closed just a few weeks later on 19 September 2025, marking the end of a very short opportunity for stakeholders to have their say. A Quick Recap Unit pricing is what allows shoppers to compare costs per standard measure (e.g. $/100g or $/litre) across different pack sizes and brands. Since 2009, large supermarkets have been required to display this information to help customers spot value. While compliance has been relatively low-cost and penalties limited, the Government’s review signals that much tighter rules could be on the way. Why Now? The ACCC’s recent supermarket inquiry highlighted that while unit pricing helps, there are still gaps. The big concern is shrinkflation—when pack sizes quietly reduce while prices remain the same or higher. With cost-of-living pressures dominating headlines, the Government is looking at clearer, fairer pricing to rebuild consumer trust. What Might Change? Proposals considered in the consultation paper include: · Shrinkflation alerts – supermarkets may need to flag when a product becomes smaller without a matching price cut. · Clearer displays – larger, more prominent unit prices both in-store and online. · Wider coverage – expanding the rules beyond major supermarkets to smaller retailers and online sellers. · Standardised measures – eliminating confusing “per roll” vs “per sheet” comparisons. · Civil penalties – introducing fines for non-compliance. The Commercial Impact For suppliers, packaging decisions could come under closer scrutiny. For retailers, costs might arise from updating shelf labels, software, or e-commerce systems. But there are also opportunities: businesses that embrace transparency could build loyalty and stand out in a competitive market. What You Should Do Now that the consultation period has closed, Treasury will consider submissions and the Government is expected to announce its response later this year. Businesses in food, grocery, and household goods should stay alert—the final shape of the rules could affect pricing, packaging, and compliance obligations across the sector. At Clarke McEwan, we can help you model potential compliance costs, assess financial impacts, and prepare for upcoming regulatory change. Reach out to discuss how this review might affect your business.

ATO Interest Charges Are No Longer Deductible – What You Can Do

By Clarke McEwan • October 10, 2025
Leaving debts outstanding with the ATO is now more expensive for many taxpayers. As we explained in the July edition of our newsletter, general interest charge (GIC) and shortfall interest charge (SIC) imposed by the ATO is no longer tax-deductible from 1 July 2025. This applies regardless of whether the underlying tax debt relates to past or future income years. With GIC currently at 11.17%, this is now one of the most expensive forms of finance in the market — and unlike in the past, you won’t get a deduction to offset the cost. For many taxpayers, this makes relying on an ATO payment plan a costly strategy. Refinancing ATO debt Businesses can sometimes refinance tax debts with a bank or other lender. Unlike GIC and SIC amounts, interest on these loans might be deductible for tax purposes, provided the borrowing is connected to business activities. While tax debts will sometimes relate to income tax or CGT liabilities, remember that interest could also be deductible where money is borrowed to pay other tax debts relating to a business, such as: · GST · PAYG instalments · PAYG withholding for employees · FBT However, before taking any action to refinance ATO debt it is important to carefully consider whether you will be able to deduct the interest expenses or not. Individuals If you are an individual with a tax debt, the treatment of interest expenses incurred on a loan used to pay that tax debt really depends on the extent to which the tax debt arose from a business activity: · Sole traders: If you are genuinely carrying on a business, interest on borrowings used to pay tax debts from that business is generally deductible. · Employees or investors: If your tax debt relates to salary, wages, rental income, dividends, or other investment income, the interest is not deductible. Refinancing may still reduce overall interest costs depending on the interest rate on the new loan, but it won’t generate a tax deduction. Example: Sam is a sole trader who runs a café. He borrows $30,000 to pay his tax debt, which arose entirely from his café profits. The interest should be fully deductible. However, if Sam also earns salary or wages from a part-time job and some of his tax debt relates to the employment income, only a portion of the interest on the loan used to pay the tax debt would be deductible. If $20,000 of the tax debt relates to his business and $10,000 relates to employment activities, then only 2/3rds of the interest expenses would be deductible. Companies and trusts If a company or trust borrows to pay its own tax debts (income tax, GST, PAYG withholding, FBT), the interest will usually be deductible if it can be traced back to a debt that arose from carrying on a business. However, if a director or beneficiary borrows money personally to cover those debts, the interest would not normally be deductible to them. Partnerships The position is more complex when it comes to partnership arrangements. If the borrowing is at the partnership level and it relates to a tax debt that arose from a business carried on by the partnership then the interest should normally be deductible. For example, this could include interest on money borrowed to pay business tax obligations such as GST or PAYG withholding amounts. However, the ATO takes the view that if an individual who is a partner in a partnership borrows money personally to pay a tax debt relating to their share of the profits of the partnership, the interest isn’t deductible. The ATO treats this as a personal expense, even if the partnership is carrying on a business activity. Practical takeaway Leaving debts outstanding with the ATO is now more expensive than ever because GIC and SIC are no longer deductible. Refinancing the tax debt with an external lender might provide you with a tax deduction and might also enable you to access lower interest rates. The key is to distinguish between tax debts that relate to a business activity and other tax debts. For mixed situations, you may need to apportion the deduction. If you’re unsure how this applies to you, talk to us before arranging finance. With the right strategy, you can manage tax debts more effectively and avoid costly surprises.

Measuring the health of your business with ratio measures

By Clarke McEwan • October 3, 2025
Business ratios
Cash is King. To work out how fast you can grow your business, you need to look at your cashflow.

Cash is not profit and vice versa

By John Clarke • September 30, 2025
The purpose of a business is to make money, and that means you need to know the difference between profit and cash flow. Net profit is what you have left after you deduct all your business expenses from all your revenue. You can improve net profit only by changing the things that affect revenue and expenses. For example, if: You renegotiate with your suppliers, you may get stock cheaper, or carry less inventory Your staff engage with customers better, you can learn more about what they do and don’t like – and get more business You can roster staff differently, you may be able to run your business more efficiently.  Cash flow comes from various sources. However, it also covers operating expenses, taxes, equipment purchases, repayments, distribution, and so on. Note that a profitable business does not always have good cash flow. And a business with good cash flow is not always profitable. For example, you can have good cash flow, and loss-making expenses. To work out how fast you can grow your business, look at your projected cash flow. We can advise you on this. Keeping cash crowned as King Your business can’t survive without cash. The following six takeaways are essential for business success: Protect your cash position, by knowing what it is. Build a cash flow statement and always keep it up-to-date. If you foresee a shortfall, start at once to fix it. Create a cash buffer as an insurance against unexpected difficulties. Protect your cash position against revenue shocks, by maintaining a balance equivalent to at least two months of operating expenses. Be realistic with revenue expectations. Take action now if it looks like sales are not going to get you to breakeven. Credit checking up front will reduce the risk of customer non-payment. Make sure you follow up with clear payment terms agreed in writing. Communicate regularly with customers and automate where possible. Every dollar you spend reduces cash reserves. The best way to protect your cash is to create a budget for the spend you know you need, and stick to it. Looking to improve cash flow? Make a time to talk to us. We're here to help.
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