Year of the Tiger: Roaring or Bellowing?

Clarke McEwan Accountants

The 2022 Luna New Year, Year of the Tiger, is courage and bravery. It is a year to drive out evil and one of momentum and change. The message; walk boldly with courage. And it seems the Reserve Bank Governor is aligned with this sentiment.

The Tiger Economy

At a recent speech to the National Press Club, Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe was optimistic about Australia's prospects in 2022. This optimism is driven by strong GDP growth that saw growth outstrip the RBA’s forecast to reach 5%, and strong jobs growth with the unemployment rate at 4.2% - the lowest rate since the resources boom. Unemployment is expected to reduce further to 3.75% by the end of 2022, and if it does, it will be the lowest unemployment level since the early 1970s. Underemployment is also at its lowest rate in 13 years.

In addition, “household and business balance sheets are generally in good shape and wages growth is picking up.”

The Surprise Inflation Figures

While wages growth is “picking up”, the forecast remains sluggish at 2.25%. Australia’s wages growth has remained lethargic for a decade now, which will come as a surprise to many business operators competing for skilled workers as, on the ground, the opposite feels true. Combined with a surprise spike in inflation (CPI) well above expectations at 3.5% (+2% on RBA forecasts), pushed predominantly by a sharp increase in petrol prices (32% over the past year) and the cost of constructing new homes, the purchasing power of Australians has declined. There has also been a large increase in the price of consumer durables (cars, fridges etc.,) and less discounting in the face of strong demand as supply chain problems take hold.

Australia is not alone in this. The UK inflation rate jumped to 5.4%, 5.7% in the United States and 5.9% in New Zealand in the same period.

Supply Woes

The sharp increase in interest rates comes on the back of, “very significant disruptions in supply chains and distribution networks,” with labour shortages in particular dominating news coverage as businesses struggle to maintain momentum with staff impacted by either COVID-19 or isolation requirements. National Cabinet harmonised the definition of a ‘close contact’ at the end of December 2021 for most Australian States and Territories and reduced the isolation period to seven days (from 14).

The recent NAB quarterly business survey reported that, “ongoing supply chain issues and border closures saw 85% of firms report availability of labour as a constraint on output, while 47% reported availability of materials as a constraint – both records in the history of the survey. As a result, both cost growth and retail price growth remained elevated.” With global staff shortages, come bottlenecks in the supply chain. For many businesses, estimating what stock they need has become a crystal ball exercise rather than a predictable science and in some cases they are ordering ahead to reduce the supply risks, which has a knock-on effect of increasing demand for raw materials. And, this is without factoring in the problem of panic buying (toilet paper anyone) as customers anxiously watch dwindling supplies on supermarket shelves. Supply chain problems, both in Australia and globally, are not anticipated to normalise for another 12 to 24 months.

The RBA Governor’s three takeaways are:

· The economy has been remarkably resilient;

· The link between the strength of the real economy and prices and wages remains alive; and

· The supply side matters for both economic activity and prices.

You could almost add, no one really knows, as a fourth point as an unexpected change, like a new virulent COVID variant, or further lockdowns, could rewrite the forecasts. But, there is plenty of room for optimism. What we have seen to date is that when there is an opportunity to rebound, to return to normal, the economy bounces back quickly and often much faster than anticipated. Afterall, health, not the economy, has been the catalyst for the crisis.

When will interest rates rise?

During his National Press Club address, Mr Lowe was asked the question, “those people are now looking very carefully at your words, trying to read the tea leaves and work out what they do with their mortgages? You obviously can’t go to the RBA Governor looking for individual financial advice. But, if it was your mortgage, would you be scrambling for a fixed rate or sticking with a variable?”

His response, “… the advice that I would give to people is, make sure that you have buffers. Interest rates will go up. And the stronger the economy, the better progress on unemployment, the faster and the sooner the increase in interest rates will be. So, interest rates will go up.”

A rate increase by the RBA would be the first since November 2020. Westpac and AMP Capital are both forecasting the first increase to occur in August this year, then a second towards the end of 2022.

While the RBA might be taking a ‘steady as she goes’ approach, many lenders have already factored in increases as the international cost of funding increases. RateCity data shows that, “a total of 17 lenders have hiked fixed rates so far this year, but that number will rise and quickly” - Westpac increased its fixed rates at the end of January and the CBA and ING (for new customers only) at the start of February.

But with households having accumulated more than $200 billion in additional savings over the past 2 years, the RBA is hopeful that any increase will dampen inflation pressures but not impinge on growth.

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Could your business survive without you?

By Clarke McEwan • September 17, 2025

Would your business still thrive, or would it suffer a catastrophic failure if you suddenly stepped away? It’s tough to remove yourself from the day-to-day operations when you’re passionate and busy. However sudden accidents, illnesses, or family emergencies can – and will – happen and you need to be able to step back knowing your systems are robust enough to cope. Build in resilience For your business to work for you, you need to make yourself replaceable. Large corporations have plans in place to mitigate what’s known as ‘Key Person Risk’. But when you run a small entrepreneurial venture, who is the backup? The more you can train and empower your team to perform the business’s essential daily functions without micromanagement, the closer you'll be able to enjoy a lifestyle business. Establish repeatable and scalable support infrastructure to run the daily operations and create a great team that you can lean on. Your staff need a common purpose – knowing why what they’re doing matters – as well as clear expectations around their roles. By creating a suitable work environment, where employees both individually and as a team are more efficient and likely to enjoy what they do, you’ll breathe easier knowing they have your back (and your business) in an emergency. Finally, it’s important to know what the business looks like without you. An exit strategy is often thought of as the way to end a business — which it can be — but in best practice, it’s a plan that moves a business toward long-term goals and allows a smooth transition to a new phase. That may involve re-imagining business direction or leadership, keeping financially sustainable, or pivoting for challenges. A fully formed exit strategy takes all business stakeholders, finances and operations into account and details all actions necessary to sell or close. Strong plans recognise the true value of a business and provide a foundation for future goals and new directions. Top Tips: 1. No one is irreplaceable – Challenge yourself to step away for a week. Which systems fall over? Which procedures get left hanging? Which duties get ignored? Go cold turkey as a test case for the time you may have to leave your business in the hands of others. 2. Embrace innovation – Get systems that are simple, streamlined, effective and can be used by multiple key team members. Make sure anyone can log in and see exactly what’s needed for what reason at any time. 3.Recognise the value you’re creating - A business that doesn’t rely on its owner is worth a lot more when the time comes to sell or pass the reins to someone else. Talk to our team about structuring your business to make it more reliable.

Keeping your tax and expenses in check when you are self-employed

By Clarke McEwan • September 16, 2025

Working for yourself or running your own business? Setup robust systems for expenses & tax requirements so you can focus on your important tasks. We can help take the headaches out of your business accounting. #freelancelife #taxtalk #smallbusinesstips #contractors #medicalcontractor #businesscontractors #ABN

A win for those carrying student debt

By Clarke McEwan • September 9, 2025

20% reduction in student debt The reduction is expected to benefit more than 3 million Australians and remove over $16 billion in outstanding debt. The 20% reduction will be automatically applied to anyone with the following student loans: · HELP loans (eg, HECS-HELP, FEE-HELP, STARTUP-HELP, SA-HELP, OS-HELP) · VET Student loans · Australian Apprenticeship Support Loans · Student Start-up Loans · Student Financial Supplement Scheme. The reduction will be based on the loan balance at 1 June 2025, before indexation was applied. Indexation will only apply to the reduced balance. The ATO will apply the reduction automatically on a retrospective basis and will adjust the indexation that is applied. No action is needed from those with a student loan balance and the Government has indicated that you will be notified once the reduction has been applied. If you had a HELP debt showing on your ATO account on 1 April 2025 but you paid the debt off after 1 June 2025 then the reduction will normally trigger a credit to your HELP account. If you don’t have any other outstanding tax or other debts to the Commonwealth, then the credit should be refunded to you. The HELP debt estimator is a useful tool to get an idea of the reduction amount, please reach out if you need any help in working out eligibility. Changes to repayments The Government has also modified the way that HELP and student loan repayments operate, primarily by increasing the amount that individuals can earn before they need to make repayments. The minimum repayment threshold for the 2025-26 year is being increased from $56,156 to $67,000. The threshold was $54,435 for the 2024-25 year. Under the new repayment system an individual will only need to make a compulsory repayment for the 2025-26 year if their income is above $67,000. The repayments will be calculated only against the portion of income that is above $67,000. Repayments will still be made through the tax system and will typically be determined when tax returns are lodged with the ATO. For many people the change in the rules will mean they have more disposable income in the short term, but it will take longer to pay off student loans. The main exception to this will be when an individual chooses to make voluntary repayments.

Creating a more dynamic and resilient economy

By Clarke McEwan • September 9, 2025

The Productivity Commission (PC) has been tasked by the Australian Government to conduct an inquiry into creating a more dynamic and resilient economy. The PC was asked to identify priority reforms and develop actionable recommendations. The PC has now released its interim report which presents some draft recommendations that are focused on two key areas: · Corporate tax reform to spur business investment · Where efficiencies could be made in the regulatory space (ie, cutting down on red tape) The interim report makes some interesting observations and key features of the draft recommendations are summarised below. Corporate tax reform The PC notes that business investment has fallen notably over the past decade and that the corporate tax system has a significant part to play in addressing this. The PC is basically suggesting that the existing corporate tax system needs to be updated to move towards a more efficient mix of taxes. The first stage of this process would involve two linked components: · Lower tax rate: businesses earning under $1 billion could have their tax rate reduced to 20%, with larger businesses still subject to a 30% rate. · New cashflow tax: a net cashflow tax of 5% should be applied to company profits. Under this system, companies would be able to fully deduct capital expenditure in the year it is incurred, encouraging investment and helping to produce a more dynamic and resilient economy. However, the new tax is expected to create an increased tax burden for companies earning over $1 billion. Cutting down on red tape The interim report notes that businesses have reported spending more time on regulatory compliance – this probably doesn’t come as a surprise to most business owners who have been forced to deal with multiple layers of government regulation. Some real world examples include windfarm approvals taking up to nine years in NSW while starting a café in Brisbane could involve up to 31 separate regulatory steps. The proposed fixes include: · The Australian Government adopting a whole-of-government statement committing to new principles and processes to drive regulation that supports economic dynamism. · Regulation should be scrutinised to ensure that its impact on growth and dynamism is more fully considered. · Public servants should be subject to enhanced expectations, making them accountable for delivering growth, competition and innovation. These are simply draft recommendations contained in an interim report so we are a long way from any of these recommendations being implemented. However, the interim report provides some insight into areas where the Government might look to make some changes to boost productivity in Australia. The PC is inviting feedback up until 15 September on the interim report before finalising its recommendations later this year.

Non-compete clauses: the next stage

By Clarke McEwan • September 9, 2025

Back in March this year the Government announced its intention to ban non-compete clauses for low and middle-income employees and consult on the use of non-compete clauses for those on higher incomes. The Government has indicated that the reforms in this area will take effect from 2027. This didn’t come as a complete surprise as the Competition Review had already published an issues paper on the topic and the PC had also issued a report indicating that limiting the use of unreasonable restraint of trade clauses would have a material impact on wages for workers. Treasury has since issued a consultation paper, seeking feedback in the following key areas: · How the proposed ban on non-compete clauses should be implemented; · Whether additional reforms are required to the use of post-employment restraints, including for high-income employees; · Whether changes are needed to clarify how restrictions on concurrent employment should apply to part-time or casual employees; and · Details necessary to implement the proposed ban on no-poach and wage-fixing agreements in the Competition and Consumer Act. Treasury makes it clear that the Government is not planning to change the way the rules apply to restraints of trade outside employment arrangements (eg, on sale of a business) or change the use of confidentiality clauses in employment. If the proposed reforms end up being implemented, then this could have a direct impact on a range of employers and their workers. Existing agreements will need to be reviewed and potentially updated. However, it is too early at the moment to guess how this will end up, we will keep you up to date as further information becomes available.

Superannuation guarantee: due dates and considerations for employees and employers

By Clarke McEwan • September 9, 2025

On 1 July 2025 the superannuation guarantee rate increased to 12% which is the final stage of a series of previously legislated increases. Employers currently need to make superannuation guarantee (SG) contributions for their employees by 28 days after the end of each quarter (28 October, 28 January, 28 April and 28 July). There is an extra day’s allowance when these dates fall on a public holiday. To comply with these rules the contribution must be in the employee’s superannuation fund on or before this date, unless the employer is using the ATO small business superannuation clearing house (SBSCH). The ATO has been applying considerable compliance resources in this space in recent years which can have an impact on both employees and employers. Employers To be eligible to claim a tax deduction on SG contributions the quarterly amount must be in the employee’s super account on or before the above quarterly due dates. The only exception to this is where the employer is using the ATO SBSCH. In that case a contribution is considered made provided it has been received by the SBSCH on or before the due date. Employers using commercial clearing houses should be mindful of turnaround times. Commercial clearing houses collect and distribute employee contributions and may be linked to accounting / payroll software or provided by some superannuation platforms. Anecdotally it seems that turnaround times for some clearing houses could be up to 14 days, so it is recommended that employers allow sufficient time before the quarterly deadlines when processing their employee SG contributions. If these deadlines are missed (yes even by a day!) that will trigger a superannuation guarantee charge (SGC) requirement which will result in a loss of the tax deduction and other penalties. The SGC requirements are outlined in the ATO link below: The super guarantee charge | Australian Taxation Office Employers do have the option to make SG payments more frequently than quarterly and this is something that employers will need to become used to if the proposed ‘payday’ superannuation reforms become law. This change is proposed to commence from 1 July 2026 and would require SG to be paid at the same frequency as salary or wages. There is some discussion on the payday super proposal at this link (noting that this is not yet law). The SBSCH will close at this time so employers using this service should start to consider transitioning to a commercial clearing house, please let us know you would like assistance with this. Employees It is recommended that you regularly check your superannuation fund statements and reconcile employer contributions to the amounts listed on your pay slips. Where SG contributions are not received on time (or at all!) employees are encouraged to discuss this first with their employer. Should this not result in a satisfactory conclusion, employees can consider bringing this to the attention of the ATO. There is some helpful discussion on this process at the following link .