The Economy in 2026 - What it might look like

Clarke McEwan Accountants

The economy in 2026 - 6 possible transformations for Australia

By imagining for a few minutes that the year is 2026, we can get a better idea of how the Australian economy might evolve. Here six economists speculate on how the economy might change in the decade after 2016.

INTHEBLACK asked six leading economists to exercise their imaginations and invent a story of what Australia's economic evolution might look like by 2026. They invented economic environments with elements that we can already see, but with huge changes to jobs, businesses, cities and international relations.

Here, then, are six thought-provoking visions of possible economic changes ahead, each addressing a different element of the economy.

Automation, looking back from 2026 - Shane Oliver

In the past decade hundreds of thousands of jobs have disappeared in transport, professional services, manufacturing, government and other sectors as machines have taken over repetitive tasks.

In the past, such transformations occurred over decades, giving displaced businesses and workers time to adjust, and the technologies that have driven the process have given rise to new industries.

Shane Oliver

Shane Oliver

However, AMP Capital Investors chief economist Shane Oliver says the decade to 2026 has been different. The rapid speed of change has been traumatic for many - old jobs have been destroyed at a much faster pace than new ones have been created.

This has caused a growing gulf between those in well-paid jobs, immune to automation, and the rest.

With less disposable income around, economic growth has slowed and social tensions are increasing. There are growing demands for the government to use the tax and welfare systems to even the spread of income, and people are loudly advocating a shift to a four-day week to share jobs.

All is not gloom, however. Cafes, tourism operators, gyms, gene therapy clinics and other personal service providers are prospering, and new jobs and businesses are appearing all the time. Despite this, the period of dislocation has been painful for many.

The workplace, looking back from 2026 - Deborah Cobb-Clark

The plunge in office rents and property prices that began in 2021 shows little sign of letting up as the days of the corporate head office appear increasingly numbered.

Deborah Cobb-Clark

Deborah Cobb-Clark

While a core of employees continue to work in the same physical space, for years now a growing proportion has been taking advantage of advances in communications technology to work from remote locations - homes, shared office spaces and even cafes with dedicated work areas.

University of Sydney professor of economics Deborah Cobb-Clark, who anticipated this development a decade ago in 2016, says this, combined with the increasing automation of many jobs, is transforming the way we live and work.

People have more leisure time as their workload shrinks and an increasing number are freed from having to undertake the daily commute.

The new model of work is changing the structure and purpose of cities. Increasingly, the CBD as a work destination is a relic of the past and the "peak hour" pressure on transport networks is receding. People still flock to cities, but mostly for their amenity and social life rather than work.

Population ageing, looking back from 2026 - Stephen Koukoulas

Having already helped to usher in land taxes in the states, the Federal Government is now facing an even tougher political fight over plans to increase the retirement age to 70 years, introduce death duties and establish a HECS-style scheme for the aged pension.

Stephen Koukoulas

Stephen Koukoulas

Stephen Koukoulas of Market Economics says there is little choice. "It is a matter of dollars and cents," he says. "Community expectations are that the provision of services be held to a high level, and that is very expensive."

The nation's swelling ranks of retirees are driving ever-increasing demands for health care, community services and income support. The burden of this cost is falling on a shrinking share of working-age Australians.

The situation has called for radical solutions, and the government is now contemplating measures that 10 years ago would have been considered unthinkable - including a progressive scale of death duties and a "reverse-HECS" for pensions, under which a means-tested proportion of the welfare payments claimed by recipients are reimbursed to the government from their estate when they die.

"People want a decent level of government-provided services," Koukoulas says, "but without some serious action, there is a real risk of it becoming unaffordable."

Productivity, looking back from 2026 - Mardi Dungey

Australia's biggest economic achievement of the past decade has been to solve the conundrum of chronically low productivity.

Mardi Dungey

Mardi Dungey

By breaking down rigidities in the way work is conceived and structured, University of Tasmania professor of economics and finance Mardi Dungey says the nation has tapped into a rich pool of labour and expertise among those who in the past have been systematically excluded from the workforce, such as those with disabilities and chronic medical conditions.

By relaxing time constraints and instead conceiving jobs in terms of outcomes, the nation has opened up a swathe of opportunities for those who might take longer to complete a task, but can deliver results at least the equal of able-bodied workers.

Innovations like e-lancing and a more sophisticated approach to measuring production, particularly in the services, have helped drive the transformation.

Deflation, looking back from 2026 - Nicholas Gruen

Almost 20 years on from the global financial crisis, the Australian economy, like that of much of the developed world, continues to struggle to get out of second gear.

While Australia's record of 35 years of unbroken growth is remarkable, Lateral Economics principal Nicholas Gruen says there is little to celebrate from the last 10 years. The dark cloud of economic stagnation that settled over Europe in the wake of the GFC has spread Down Under.

Nicholas Gruen

Nicholas Gruen

The tough medicine policies forced on Europe's debtor nations (Italy, Spain, Greece) by Germany stoked deflationary forces that quelled growth there, and a similar dynamic has gripped Australia. Central banks around the world, including in Australia, have struggled in vain to lift the inflation rate.

Most workers have not had a real pay rise in years, and housing costs are claiming an increasing share of income, leaving fewer dollars left over for shopping and personal services. In turn, soft turnover has given firms little reason to hire more staff or make substantial investments.

In the past decade, annual growth has averaged 2.5 to 3 per cent, rather than 3 to 3.75 per cent. The result, says Gruen, has been to make the country 5 per cent poorer than it would otherwise have been.

Instead of acting to break out of this rut, successive governments have been complacent. "Now our unemployment rate is higher than the United Kingdom and the US, and there is no sense of urgency, or that something is seriously wrong," says Gruen. "It is a story of the great Australian complacency."

China's hard landing, looking back from 2026 - Saul Eslake

In the decade since 2016 the country has endured slowing population growth, a continued decline in the terms of trade and productivity, and an end to booming house prices. Yet the biggest shock has come from the liquidity crisis that crippled China's financial system.

Saul Eslake

Saul Eslake

The warning signs were already appearing in the middle of the last decade, says independent economist Saul Eslake, when the country's banking system developed some of the worrying characteristics of the American banking system before the global financial crisis hit.

"The GFC was not primarily caused by a huge increase in bad mortgage loans, but by a wholesale run on funds tied up in securities," Eslake said at the time.

"China's banking system has taken on some of that character. China's banking system has become much more dependent on the types of funding [securities] that brought down the Western banking system [in the GFC]," he adds.

The Asian country's massive foreign exchange reserves, worth around US$3 trillion, were of little help in what became a solvency crisis. For Australia, whose trade dependency on one nation was greater than at any time since the 1950s, the economic consequences have been severe.

Leveraging Xero for Medical Practices: The Importance of Monthly Bank Reconciliation
By Clarke McEwan June 12, 2025
Leveraging Xero for Medical Practices: The Importance of Monthly Bank Reconciliation In the evolving world of financial management, the use of cloud-based accounting software like Xero has transformed how businesses, including medical practices, handle their finances. For healthcare providers in Australia, maintaining accurate financial records is crucial, not only for compliance but also for ensuring business efficiency and growth. One of the fundamental accounting processes that support this is regular bank reconciliation. Why Choose Xero for Your Medical Practice? Xero is a user-friendly, cloud-based accounting software designed to simplify day-to-day financial operations. Here are some key reasons why medical practices are increasingly adopting Xero: Streamlined Billing and Invoicing : Xero allows for easy creation and management of invoices, ensuring that patients are billed correctly and efficiently. Real-Time Financial Overview : With Xero, you can access your financial data anytime, anywhere, providing you with a real-time snapshot of your practice's financial health. Integration with Other Systems : Xero integrates seamlessly with a plethora of healthcare management systems, reducing manual data entry and enabling smooth workflow. Efficient Payroll Handling : Automate payroll processing within your practice, helping you manage employee payments and relevant compliance efficiently. The Significance of Regular Bank Reconciliation Bank reconciliation is the process of aligning the records in your practice's accounting system with the corresponding information on your bank statement to ensure both sets of records are accurate. Here’s why doing this every month is vital: 1. Error Detection and Correction Bank reconciliation allows you to spot any discrepancies between your records and the bank's data. This includes identifying double payments, missed transactions, or bank errors that could cost your practice a significant amount if left unchecked. 2. Fraud Prevention By regularly reconciling your accounts, you create an opportunity to detect early signs of fraudulent activity or unauthorized transactions, safeguarding your practice’s funds. 3. Cash Flow Management Accurate reconciliation ensures that your cash flow statement reflects the true financial state of your practice, helping you plan for any financial commitments and investments with confidence. 4. Compliance and Reporting Regular reconciliation ensures your financial statements are accurate, facilitating smoother tax filing and adherence to Australian financial regulations. 5. Financial Decision-Making When reconciled correctly, your financial data becomes a reliable foundation for making strategic business decisions, such as expanding your practice or acquiring new equipment. Incorporating Xero into Your Routine To maximize the benefits of Xero for your medical practice: Schedule Monthly Reconciliation : Set aside dedicated time each month to complete your bank reconciliations without fail. Leverage Automation : Use Xero’s bank feeds to automate transaction imports, which makes the matching and reconciliation process quicker and more efficient. Stay Informed : Regularly review reports generated by Xero to keep abreast of your practice’s financial performance and trends. Consult with Professionals : Collaborate with your accountant or financial advisor to ensure that your reconciliation processes are optimized and aligned with best practices. In conclusion, adopting Xero and maintaining regular bank reconciliations in your medical practice are not merely about staying compliant; they are essential components of robust financial management. They ensure your practice operates smoothly and is prepared for growth, making them indispensable tools in today’s healthcare landscape. Discover how our accounting services can further enhance your financial management processes. Get in touch with us today for tailored solutions to meet the unique needs of your medical practice. To arrange a no obligation meeting please use the link here
Choosing the appropriate business structure is crucial for any doctor setting up a practice in Austr
By Clarke McEwan June 11, 2025
Choosing the appropriate business structure is crucial for any doctor setting up a practice in Australia. The decision not only affects your tax obligations but also significantly impacts asset protection and legal liabilities. This article delves into the primary business structures available to Australian medical professionals and their implications.
By Clarke McEwan June 2, 2025
Individuals Personal income tax cuts: the 2025-26 federal budget introduced a modest income tax cut for all taxpayers from 1 July 2026 and again from 1 July 2027. The tax rate for the $18,201-$45,000 tax bracket will reduce from its current rate of 16%, to 15% from 1 July 2026, then to 14% from 2027-28. The saving from the tax cut represents a maximum of $268 in the 2026-27 year and $536 from the 2027-28 year. Legislation enabling the tax cut passed Parliament on 26 March 2025. $1,000 instant work related expenses tax deduction The Government has committed to providing taxpayers who earn labour income with a $1,000 shortcut work related deduction claim on their tax return. Taxpayers who are likely to have claims higher than $1000 can claim in the usual way. The simplified tax deduction is only available to those earning labour income. Those earning business or investment income only will not be able to claim this shortcut deduction. Taxpayers will be able to claim other non-work related deductions in addition to the instant work related deduction. Energy rebate extended The 2025-26 federal budget extended energy rebates . From 1 July 2025, households and small business will be eligible for a further $150 energy rebate until the end of the 2025 calendar year. The rebates will automatically apply to electricity bills in quarterly instalments. Cheaper home batteries The Government has committed to reducing the cost of home batteries from 1 July 2025 . Through the scheme, households will be able to purchase a typical battery with a 30% discount on installed costs – saving around $4,000 on a typical battery. The initiative extends the existing Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme . 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers The Government has committed to a 5% deposit scheme for all Australian first home buyers . Under the scheme the Government will underwrite eligible first home buyers, enabling them to purchase a property with a 5% deposit without the need for Lenders Mortgage Insurance. Expanding the existing first home buyer scheme, the media release says, “there will be higher property price limits and no caps on places or income, in a major expansion of the existing scheme.” The existing Home Guarantee Scheme is limited in places and subject to income tests. The scheme is open to Australian citizens or permanent residents who have never owned property or land in Australia, or have not owned property or land in Australia in the last 10 years, and available to owner occupiers only. Superannuation Legislation enabling the proposed Division 296 tax on superannuation balances above $3m lapsed when Parliament dissolved. The question now is whether the Government will seek to push this reform through the Senate with the support of The Greens. Greens Senator Nick McKim has previously advocated for the Division 296 threshold to be lowered to $2m and indexed to inflation. In addition, the Senator tied his support for the tax to a “prohibition for super funds to borrow to finance investments.” Originally intended to apply from 1 July 2025, if enacted, Division 296 will increase the headline tax rate to 30% for earnings on total superannuation balances (TSB) above $3m. The proposed calculation captures growth in TSB over the financial year allowing for contributions and withdrawals. This method captures both realised and unrealised gains, enabling negative earnings to be carried forward and offset against future years. Small business Extending the instant asset write-off for small business: An increase to the $1,000 instant asset write-off threshold has been a consistent feature of federal budgets by various governments as an incentive for small business investment. The extension of the increased instant asset write-off threshold to $20,000 for the 2024-25 financial was passed by Parliament on 26 March 2025. The Government has committed to extending the $20,000 instant asset write-off threshold to 30 June 2026 . National small business strategy The Government has released its National small business strategy for consultation. The strategy primarily addresses how different government jurisdictions work with small business and how to relieve some of the friction when dealing across government systems and requirements. Energy Green Aluminium Production Credit: The Government has $2bn set aside for a new Green Aluminium Production Credit to support Australian aluminium smelters switching to renewable electricity before 2036 (there are four of them). If you are wondering why the aluminium industry has been singled out, the reason is two-fold; aluminium is the second most used metal in the world and according to the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, represents about 10% of Australia’s electricity demand - Tomago Aluminium just north of Newcastle in NSW, is the largest single user of electricity in the country with electricity making up about 40% of its costs. Transition from brown to green energy is not just a consumption issue for the industry, it’s a recreation of the value chain. Under the initiative, smelters will be able to negotiate an emissions linked credit contract payable per tonne of green aluminium produced for up to 10 years. The final credit rates will be based on individual facility circumstances and be dependent on reducing Scope 2 emissions. Scope 2 emissions are indirect greenhouse gas emissions associated with the purchase of electricity, steam, heat or cooling. They account for around 85% of emissions from aluminium smelting. See: Aluminium to forge Australia's manufacturing future and Department of Industry, Science and Resources. New Green Aluminium Production Credit will support the transition to green metals.
By Clarke McEwan June 2, 2025
• A mechanic attempting to claim an air fryer, microwave, two vacuum cleaners, TV, gaming console and gaming accessories as work related expenses • A truck driver seeking to deduct swimwear purchased during transit due to hot weather • A fashion industry manager attempting to claim over $10 000 in luxury branded clothing and accessories for work related events. These claims were deemed personal in nature and lacked a sufficient connection to income earning activities. The advice here would be - if in doubt leave it out or run it by us. 2025 priorities The ATO is focusing on areas where frequent errors occur including: • Work related expenses: as above, claims must have a clear connection to income earning activities and be substantiated with records including receipts or invoices. Even if an expense seems to relate to income earning activities, it can’t normally be claimed if it is a private expense. There are a wide range of common expenses that normally don’t qualify for a deduction. • Working from home deductions: taxpayers must prove they incurred additional expenses due to working from home. The ATO offers two methods for calculating these deductions: the fixed rate method and the actual cost method (more detail below). • Multiple income sources: all sources of income, including side hustles or gig economy work must be declared. Each source may have different deductions available. Working from home deductions For those working from home there are two methods to calculate deductions: • Fixed rate method: claim 70 cents per hour for additional running expenses such as electricity, internet and phone usage even if you don’t have a dedicated home office. This method can only be used if you have recorded the actual number of hours you worked from home across the income year. A reasonable estimate isn’t enough. • Actual cost method: claim the actual expenses incurred, with records to substantiate the claims. This method potentially enables a larger deduction to be claimed, but the record keeping obligations are more onerous. It's important to note that double dipping is not allowed. For instance, if you claim deductions using the fixed rate method you can’t separately claim a deduction for your mobile phone costs.  As always, if you’re unsure or need help with your tax return please reach out.
By Clarke McEwan June 2, 2025
Annual NFP self-review return From the 2023–24 income year, non-charitable NFPs with an active Australian Business Number (ABN) are required to lodge an annual NFP self-review return with the ATO. This return notifies the ATO of the organisation's eligibility to self-assess as income tax exempt. The return has three sections: • Organisation details: standard information on the NFP. • Income tax self-assessment: confirmation of the organisation's income tax exempt status. • Summary and declaration: acknowledgement of the information provided. When the return is being completed the NFP must answer ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to the question: ‘Does the organisation have and follow clauses in its governing documents that prohibit the distribution of income or assets to members while it is operating and winding up?’ This requirement needs to be satisfied in order for the NFP to self-assess its position as a tax exempt entity. If a NFPs governing documents don’t have these clauses then it can still self-assess as income tax exempt for the 2024 income year as long as no income or assets have been distributed to members. As a transitional arrangement, the ATO is allowing NFPs until 30 June 2025 to update their governing documents. Failing to do this will mean that the organisation cannot self-assess as income tax exempt from 1 July 2024 for the 2025 income year, which would lead to the organisation being treated as a taxable entity that might then need to lodge a tax return. Mandatory clauses in governing documents Governing documents are the formal documents which set out the purpose of the organisation, its character and the rules and requirements for how decisions are made, how it operates and how long it operates for. A s noted above, NFPs must include specific clauses in their governing documents to selfassess as income tax exempt. These clauses must: • Prohibit the distribution of income or assets to members during the organisation's operation and on winding up. • Ensure that any surplus assets are transferred to another NFP with similar purposes upon dissolution. NFPs should also ensure that there are sufficient controls in place to ensure that members don’t receive income, property or assets which belong to the organisation, except where they are receiving remuneration for work performed for the entity or a reimbursement of expenses incurred on behalf of the organisation.  The advises that NFP governing documents should be reviewed at least annually or whenever there is a major change to the structure or activities of the organisation. An annual general meeting is a good time to review governing documents. Taking a proactive approach helps identify any issues and reinforces your organisation's commitment to good governance.
By Clarke McEwan June 2, 2025
The other was a decline in Government spending. Mr Trump’s tariffs are deflationary for the world and inflationary for the US. The sharp weakening in soft economic data points to rising recession risks, although markets still only seem priced for a mild slowdown which now seems right given the backdown. It is no surprise that China announced a new stimulus package including interest rate cuts and a significant liquidity injection, as the Government looks to boost an economy that has been hit by the collapse in the property market and now the trade war with the US. China’s factory activity contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April following the frontloading of orders to beat the tariffs. Trade talks between the US and China have driven market optimism over the past few weeks and sentiment has turned positive. The US-China deal has 30% import taxes on Chinese goods, which could still stem trade flow. The trade announcement with the UK has disappointed many in the market as it kept the 10% tariff on imports into the US up from 3.4%. The EU hasn’t even begun negotiations with the US. In Australia, the election has come and gone fairly uneventfully for financial markets. We are waiting on GDP data to be released in the next few weeks which should confirm a sluggish economy given consumer spending remains weak. The RBA has cut interest rates and this should underpin mild growth. The outlook for financial markets remains one of uncertainty reflected by the increase in volatility. Tight policy, lingering inflation risks and tariff-related drag still weighs on markets. What seems to have been achieved so far is a whole lot of volatility and the realisation the US needs China as much as China needs the US. Within the Australian share market there was a notable softening in outlook statements by company management in the recent reporting season. With full-year forecasts being revised lower, it is reasonable to suggest that marketwide earnings growth is slowing, with expectations moderating for the rest of this year and potentially into the next.
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