The Economy in 2026 - What it might look like

Clarke McEwan Accountants

The economy in 2026 - 6 possible transformations for Australia

By imagining for a few minutes that the year is 2026, we can get a better idea of how the Australian economy might evolve. Here six economists speculate on how the economy might change in the decade after 2016.

INTHEBLACK asked six leading economists to exercise their imaginations and invent a story of what Australia's economic evolution might look like by 2026. They invented economic environments with elements that we can already see, but with huge changes to jobs, businesses, cities and international relations.

Here, then, are six thought-provoking visions of possible economic changes ahead, each addressing a different element of the economy.

Automation, looking back from 2026 - Shane Oliver

In the past decade hundreds of thousands of jobs have disappeared in transport, professional services, manufacturing, government and other sectors as machines have taken over repetitive tasks.

In the past, such transformations occurred over decades, giving displaced businesses and workers time to adjust, and the technologies that have driven the process have given rise to new industries.

Shane Oliver

Shane Oliver

However, AMP Capital Investors chief economist Shane Oliver says the decade to 2026 has been different. The rapid speed of change has been traumatic for many - old jobs have been destroyed at a much faster pace than new ones have been created.

This has caused a growing gulf between those in well-paid jobs, immune to automation, and the rest.

With less disposable income around, economic growth has slowed and social tensions are increasing. There are growing demands for the government to use the tax and welfare systems to even the spread of income, and people are loudly advocating a shift to a four-day week to share jobs.

All is not gloom, however. Cafes, tourism operators, gyms, gene therapy clinics and other personal service providers are prospering, and new jobs and businesses are appearing all the time. Despite this, the period of dislocation has been painful for many.

The workplace, looking back from 2026 - Deborah Cobb-Clark

The plunge in office rents and property prices that began in 2021 shows little sign of letting up as the days of the corporate head office appear increasingly numbered.

Deborah Cobb-Clark

Deborah Cobb-Clark

While a core of employees continue to work in the same physical space, for years now a growing proportion has been taking advantage of advances in communications technology to work from remote locations - homes, shared office spaces and even cafes with dedicated work areas.

University of Sydney professor of economics Deborah Cobb-Clark, who anticipated this development a decade ago in 2016, says this, combined with the increasing automation of many jobs, is transforming the way we live and work.

People have more leisure time as their workload shrinks and an increasing number are freed from having to undertake the daily commute.

The new model of work is changing the structure and purpose of cities. Increasingly, the CBD as a work destination is a relic of the past and the "peak hour" pressure on transport networks is receding. People still flock to cities, but mostly for their amenity and social life rather than work.

Population ageing, looking back from 2026 - Stephen Koukoulas

Having already helped to usher in land taxes in the states, the Federal Government is now facing an even tougher political fight over plans to increase the retirement age to 70 years, introduce death duties and establish a HECS-style scheme for the aged pension.

Stephen Koukoulas

Stephen Koukoulas

Stephen Koukoulas of Market Economics says there is little choice. "It is a matter of dollars and cents," he says. "Community expectations are that the provision of services be held to a high level, and that is very expensive."

The nation's swelling ranks of retirees are driving ever-increasing demands for health care, community services and income support. The burden of this cost is falling on a shrinking share of working-age Australians.

The situation has called for radical solutions, and the government is now contemplating measures that 10 years ago would have been considered unthinkable - including a progressive scale of death duties and a "reverse-HECS" for pensions, under which a means-tested proportion of the welfare payments claimed by recipients are reimbursed to the government from their estate when they die.

"People want a decent level of government-provided services," Koukoulas says, "but without some serious action, there is a real risk of it becoming unaffordable."

Productivity, looking back from 2026 - Mardi Dungey

Australia's biggest economic achievement of the past decade has been to solve the conundrum of chronically low productivity.

Mardi Dungey

Mardi Dungey

By breaking down rigidities in the way work is conceived and structured, University of Tasmania professor of economics and finance Mardi Dungey says the nation has tapped into a rich pool of labour and expertise among those who in the past have been systematically excluded from the workforce, such as those with disabilities and chronic medical conditions.

By relaxing time constraints and instead conceiving jobs in terms of outcomes, the nation has opened up a swathe of opportunities for those who might take longer to complete a task, but can deliver results at least the equal of able-bodied workers.

Innovations like e-lancing and a more sophisticated approach to measuring production, particularly in the services, have helped drive the transformation.

Deflation, looking back from 2026 - Nicholas Gruen

Almost 20 years on from the global financial crisis, the Australian economy, like that of much of the developed world, continues to struggle to get out of second gear.

While Australia's record of 35 years of unbroken growth is remarkable, Lateral Economics principal Nicholas Gruen says there is little to celebrate from the last 10 years. The dark cloud of economic stagnation that settled over Europe in the wake of the GFC has spread Down Under.

Nicholas Gruen

Nicholas Gruen

The tough medicine policies forced on Europe's debtor nations (Italy, Spain, Greece) by Germany stoked deflationary forces that quelled growth there, and a similar dynamic has gripped Australia. Central banks around the world, including in Australia, have struggled in vain to lift the inflation rate.

Most workers have not had a real pay rise in years, and housing costs are claiming an increasing share of income, leaving fewer dollars left over for shopping and personal services. In turn, soft turnover has given firms little reason to hire more staff or make substantial investments.

In the past decade, annual growth has averaged 2.5 to 3 per cent, rather than 3 to 3.75 per cent. The result, says Gruen, has been to make the country 5 per cent poorer than it would otherwise have been.

Instead of acting to break out of this rut, successive governments have been complacent. "Now our unemployment rate is higher than the United Kingdom and the US, and there is no sense of urgency, or that something is seriously wrong," says Gruen. "It is a story of the great Australian complacency."

China's hard landing, looking back from 2026 - Saul Eslake

In the decade since 2016 the country has endured slowing population growth, a continued decline in the terms of trade and productivity, and an end to booming house prices. Yet the biggest shock has come from the liquidity crisis that crippled China's financial system.

Saul Eslake

Saul Eslake

The warning signs were already appearing in the middle of the last decade, says independent economist Saul Eslake, when the country's banking system developed some of the worrying characteristics of the American banking system before the global financial crisis hit.

"The GFC was not primarily caused by a huge increase in bad mortgage loans, but by a wholesale run on funds tied up in securities," Eslake said at the time.

"China's banking system has taken on some of that character. China's banking system has become much more dependent on the types of funding [securities] that brought down the Western banking system [in the GFC]," he adds.

The Asian country's massive foreign exchange reserves, worth around US$3 trillion, were of little help in what became a solvency crisis. For Australia, whose trade dependency on one nation was greater than at any time since the 1950s, the economic consequences have been severe.

By Clarke McEwan April 14, 2025
The amount of money that can be transferred to a tax-free retirement account will increase to $2m on 1 July 2025. Each year, advisers await the December inflation statistics to the be released. The reason is simple, the transfer balance cap – the amount that can be transferred to a tax-free retirement account – is indexed to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released each December. If inflation goes up, the general transfer balance cap is indexed in increments of $100,000 at the start of the financial year. In December 2024, the inflation rate triggered an increase in the cap from $1.9m to $2m. The complexity with the transfer balance cap is that each person has an individual transfer balance cap. If you have started a retirement income stream, when indexation occurs, any increase only applies to your unused transfer balance cap. Considering retiring in 2025? If you are considering retiring, either fully or partially, indexation of the transfer balance cap provides a one-off opportunity to increase the amount of money you can transfer to your tax-free retirement account. That is, if you start taking a retirement income stream for the first time in June 2025, your transfer balance cap will be $1.9m but if you wait until July 2025 your transfer balance cap will be $2m, an extra tax-free $100,000. Already taking a pension? If you are already taking a retirement income stream, indexation applies to your unused transfer balance cap - so you might not benefit from the full $100,000 increase on 1 July 2025. Where can I see what my cap is? Your superannuation fund reports the value of your superannuation interests to the ATO. You can view your personal transfer balance cap, available cap space, and transfer balance account transactions online through the ATO link in myGov . If you have a self-managed superannuation fund (SMSF), it is very important that your reporting obligations are up to date.
By Clarke McEwan April 14, 2025
In the 2025-26 Federal Budget the Government announced a ban on non-compete clauses and “no poach” agreements. In the 2025-26 Federal Budget, the Government announced its intention to ban non-compete clauses for low and middle-income employees and consult on the use of non-compete clauses for those on high incomes (under the Fair Work Act the high income threshold is currently $175,000). The reason? A recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) report found that 46.9% of businesses surveyed used some kind of restraint clause, including for workers in non-executive roles. The survey also found 20.8% of businesses use non-compete clauses for at least some of their staff and 68.2% for more than three-quarters of their employees. From an economic perspective, declining job mobility impacts wage growth and innovation as restraints prevent access to skilled workers within the economy. Productivity is a key concern as Australia’s productivity has declined in the last 20 years. Treasury’s consultation paper Non-compete clauses and other restraints states that, “the direct consequence of a non-compete clause is that it hinders competition among businesses: it disincentivises workers from leaving their current job, creating a barrier to the entry of new businesses and the expansion of existing businesses.” A Productivity Commission report estimates the effect of limiting the use of unreasonable restraint of trade clauses will be increased wages for workers - by up to up to 2.4% in industries with high use of non-compete clauses and up to 1.4% in others. Non-competes: the state of play  Non-compete clauses in Australia are generally enforced under common law. For all regions except New South Wales, restraints are generally presumed to be against the public interest and therefore void and unenforceable except where they are deemed to be reasonably necessary to protect the legitimate interest of the employer1. In NSW, a restraint of trade is valid to the extent to which it is not against public policy. When non-competes are contested, the courts consider the nature and extent of the business interest to be protected (e.g., confidential client information) and whether the scope of restriction the business wants imposed is reasonable including its geographic area, time period and activities which the restraint seeks to control. Interests considered ‘legitimate’ by courts include the protection of trade secrets or other confidential information; protection against solicitation of clients with whom the former worker had a personal connection; and protection against key staff being recruited by a former colleague. An employer is not entitled to protect themselves against mere competition by a former worker . What now The ban on non-compete clauses was announced in the 2025-26 Federal Budget. The Government has stated that it intends to consult on policy details, including exemptions, penalties, and transition arrangements. Following consultation and the passage of legislation, the reforms are anticipated to take effect from 2027, operating prospectively. There is a lot of uncertainty at this stage about this measure, despite the enthusiasm of the Treasury economists, not least of which is the impending election. We’ll bring you more as further information is available.
By Clarke McEwan April 13, 2025
From 1 July 2026, personal income tax rates will change. On the last sitting day of Parliament, the personal income tax rate reduction announced in the 2025-26 Federal Budget was confirmed. The modest reduction of 1% applies to the $18,201-$45,000 tax bracket, reducing from its current rate of 16% to 15% from 1 July 2026, then to 14% from 2027-28. The saving from the tax cut represents a maximum of $268 in the 2026-27 year and $536 from the 2027-28 year. With a 1 July 2026 start date, the outcome of the Federal election on 3 May 2025 and subsequent budgets will determine whether this change comes to fruition. Medicare levy threshold change for low-income earners Low-income earners do not pay the compulsory 2% Medicare levy until their assessable income reaches the threshold. The threshold is different depending on whether you are a single taxpayer, pensioner, and the number of children you have that are dependent on you. Parliament has confirmed the increase to the Medicare levy threshold announced in the Federal Budget. The threshold change is backdated to 1 July 2024, which means that taxpayers will benefit when they lodge their 2024-25 tax return. See our Budget 2025-26 summary for details.
Super guarantee rules catch up with employers
By Clarke McEwan April 13, 2025
The superannuation guarantee rules are broad and, in some circumstances, extend beyond the definition of common law employees to some directors, contractors, entertainers, sports persons and other workers. Employers need to pay compulsory superannuation guarantee (SG) to those considered employees under the definition in the SG rules. But, the SG definition of an employee is broad and just how far this definition extends has sparked debate of late about the rights of performers, gym instructors and others not typically considered employees. For employers and business owners, it is crucially important that if there is any uncertainty about the rights of workers to SG, your position is confirmed. This might be an initial assessment of the position by us, confirmed by an employment lawyer, or clarified by applying for a ATO private ruling covering your specific workplace arrangements. One of the things that employers find most alarming is that there is no tangible time limit on the recovery of outstanding SG obligations. In theory, the ATO can go back as far as it determines necessary to recover unpaid superannuation contributions for workers who are classified as employees for SG purposes. One of the key features of the SG system is to ensure that appropriate contributions are being made for employees and deemed employees, to adequately support them in their retirement. The SG laws, and complimentary director penalty regime, ensure that every cent owing to an employee for SG is paid. Who is not paid super guarantee? Super guarantee does not need to be paid to: Under 18s who do not work more than 30 hours a week. Private and domestic workers who do not work more than 30 hours a week. Non-resident employees who perform work outside of Australia. Employees temporarily working in Australia covered by an agreement. Some foreign executives who hold certain visas or entry permits. Generally, SG is not payable if you have entered into a contract with a company, trust or partnership. If you have Australian employees temporarily working outside of Australia in a country with a bilateral social security agreement , for example, the United States, you should continue paying SG and apply for a certificate of coverage to avoid paying super (or the equivalent) in the country where the employee is temporarily located. SG’s broader definition of an employee There is a section of the SG rules, section 12 , that specifies who is deemed to be an employee for SG purposes. This section extends the definition of an employee beyond common law to cover: Company directors who are remunerated for performing duties; Contractors working under a contract wholly or principally for their labour; Certain state and Commonwealth government contracted workers; and Those paid to perform or present any music, play, dance, entertainment, sport or other similar promotional activity. This includes people who provide services in connection with these activities or people paid in relation to film, tape, disc or television. Are contractors entitled to SG? If your contractor holds an Australian Business Number (ABN), this of itself will not prevent SG from applying. Where the arrangement looks like it is a contract for the provision of an individual’s labour and skills, it is likely they will meet the definition of an employee and SG will be payable. The SG rules state if, “a person works under a contract that is wholly or principally for the labour of the person, the person is an employee of the other party to the contract.” This definition is alarming to many employers as the rate paid to contractors, and often the terms of the agreement, factor in an uplift for super guarantee and other entitlements that would normally be paid if the person was an employee. But for SG purposes, it does not matter what the contract says, if the person is deemed to be an employee under the rules, they are entitled to SG and the employer is obligated to pay it. The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) states that SG needs to be paid to contractors if you pay them: under a verbal or written contract that is mainly for their labour (more than half the dollar value of the contract is for their labour) for their personal labour and skills (payment isn't dependent on achieving a specified result) to perform the contract work (work cannot be delegated to someone else). In a recent ruling , the ATO says that where the worker is required to use a substantial capital asset (such as a truck) this will help in arguing that the contract is not mainly for the labour of the worker, but this will always depend on the facts. Are directors paid SG? Yes. Directors (members of executive bodies of bodies corporate) should be paid SG if they are remunerated for performing duties for the company. Entertainers, performers and sportspeople Generally, if a performer operates through a company, trust, or partnership then there is not an employment relationship and SG is not payable. However, individual artists, performers and sportspeople are captured as employees under the SG rules ( section 12(8 )) where they are paid to: perform or present, or to participate in the performance or presentation of, any music, play, dance, entertainment, sport, display or promotional activity or any similar activity involving the exercise of intellectual, artistic, musical, physical or other personal skills; provide services in connection with an activity referred to above; perform services in, or in connection with, the making of any film, tape or disc or of any television or radio broadcast. Whoever is paying the individual for their labour, is generally responsible for the payment of that individual’s SG. For example, a music festival operator that contracts a sole trader to perform at a festival might be liable for SG for that performer. Likewise, if the sole trader contracts band members to perform with them at the festival, then the sole trader is responsible for the SG of the band members. If however, the music festival worked with an agency to supply the performers (the music festival pays the agency, the agency pays the performers), then the agency is likely to be responsible for the SG of the artists if there is a liability. If the agency only charges a booking fee and the festival pays the performers directly, then the festival is likely to be responsible for the performer’s SG. You can see from this how important it is to determine who meets the definition of an employee for SG purposes, and if so, to understand the parties to the deemed employment relationship. What’s a service “in connection to” The definition of an employee for SG purposes captures workers who work with performers, for example individuals that are producers, videographers, editors, etc. If the person meets the definition of an employee under the SG rules, then it is likely SG is payable. Is a gym instructor a sportsperson? A gym instructor may be captured under the definition of a deemed employee under the SG rules. Whether the gym is liable to pay the instructor SG really depends on the facts of the individual arrangement. Let’s look at the example of a gym instructor operating as a sole trader under an ABN. There is a contract between the instructor and the gym stating that the instructor is an independent contractor and is responsible for their own SG payments and other employment obligations. The instructor is paid per class, and per training session with clients, covering their time and labour. The instructor utilises the equipment of the gym and its scheduling system. The instructor wears the uniform of the gym. The instructor is trained by the gym in how to deliver the services of the gym.  Employee? Most likely because the ATO places a heavy significance on whether an individual is working to build their own business or someone else’s. If the instructor “..works under a contract that is wholly or principally for the labour of the person” then this also brings them into the SG net. If the employer, the gym, had not been paying SG, is it exposed to SG payments for the instructor since the employment relationship began.
Federal Budget 2025-26: what it means for your small business
By Clarke McEwan March 29, 2025
The Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, delivered the Federal Budget on 25 March. But what’s in the Budget for small business owners? We’ve got the lowdown on the main opportunities. #FederalBudget #Budget #businesstips
By Clarke McEwan March 21, 2025
As your accountant, we won't just look after the financial side of your business, we can also advise you on the strategic side of your company, including the importance of business development as vital part of your growth plan. Business development (BD) is what helps your company move from slow, organic growth to fast-paced, hypergrowth. And it’s only by putting the right drive and expertise behind your BD that you can turn your strategic ideas into real success stories. So, how can we help you achieve this? Talk to you about your strategic goals The starting point for any kind of BD activity is to pin down your goals and aims as a business. When you know what you want to achieve over the coming months, it’s far easier to define a strategy for success. And that’s easier to do when you talk to an objective adviser, like us. We can sit in on your board meetings, talk to your executive team and get a real handle on what makes the business tick. And, armed with this knowledge, we’ll work with you to drive the direction of your BD and find the best opportunities for you to focus on. Help you create a clear BD strategy and plan Having a defined set of BD goals is a good starting point. But to put this all into action in a productive way, you’re going to need a comprehensive plan for your BD projects. Our years of experience advising business leaders and their teams really comes into play here. We know the best routes to take, the budgets that will be needed and the right tactics for bringing in more contracts, sales and partnerships. By putting these strategies into a clear plan, and linking this to agreed timescales, you have a BD route map to follow and action. Introduce you to a broader network of business partners We work with a wide range of businesses across many different sectors, industries and niches. By introducing you to our network of clients, we welcome you into a supportive community of like-minded business owners. And that’s excellent news when looking for new partnerships. Whether it’s attending a local conference, an online webinar or one of our in-house client events, you’re going to meet new people, share new ideas and make the right connections. This is a great way to build alliances and work together with other local businesses. And when you’re well-connected, you set the very best foundations for your future BD activity. Provide better routes to funding and investment Whatever goals you’ve set for your BD projects, it’s likely that you’re going to need additional funding to finance this activity. Investing in your expansion, or new partnerships, is vital to getting a good return on your BD, so great access to finance is a definite bonus. We’ll advise you on the most appropriate funding channels and how you can use these facilities to finance your BD plans. And we can also link you up with banks, lenders and business finance specialists – so you get the advice and finance you need to bring your BD to life. Help you track and measure your BD performance Meeting your BD targets takes time – and a whole lot of dedication. Measuring your BD performance over time, helps you stay on track and gives you a good indication of how well you’re tracking against your planned progress. We’ll help you create the reporting and metrics you need, so you have clear data to track your progress over time. You can log your activity in your project management system, or your client relationship management (CRM) software, and keep clear notes on contacts made, relationships built and targets converted etc. If you want to get more from your BD, please do get in touch. We’ll partner with you to put some real drive, experience and impetus behind your BD strategies.
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