Forecasting in a Pandemic

Clarke McEwan Accountants

Understand where you stand now

Businesses fail (or fail to thrive) for a myriad of reasons, but the precursor is often a failure to understand what is occurring and what to monitor. Strategically, managers need to be on top of their numbers to identify and manage problems before they get out of hand. If you do not know what the key drivers of your business are - the things that make the difference between doing well and going under - then it's time to find out.

Understanding your cost structure

Do you know what your real cost of doing business is? Your breakeven point is the level of sales activity where your business is neither making a profit or a loss. Calculate your breakeven point by dividing your fixed expenses by your gross profit margin. This figure represents the level of sales income you need to breakeven.

Understanding your breakeven point is crucial particularly when supply chains are impacted.

Not only will your breakeven point assist you to monitor business performance, it's critical when deciding whether or not to offer a discount. If your breakeven point is well below your current operating level then you have a good buffer in your profits to manage growth, invest in further capital opportunities, and to protect yourself against further downturns in operating performance. And before you say "I know that," ask yourself how many people actually put this theory into practice. Even some of the largest businesses have been caught out on this one and tie up valuable resources in unprofitable projects and products.

Putting up your prices during down times is not an act of social betrayal. If your prices have increased you should flow these through unless you are comfortable making less for the same amount of effort, or you are in an industry that is so price sensitive you have no choice but to follow the lead of larger businesses.

Discounting creates a leverage impact on profits. By discounting you are giving away some or all of your profits. The key is to understand the impact and just how far you can go. For example, a business with a 30% gross profit margin that offers a 25% discount (certainly nothing unusual about that in today's market) needs a 500% increase in sales volume just to maintain the same position – and, in almost all cases, that's just not going to happen. The result generally is that the business trades below its breakeven point and generates a loss. You can only do that for a limited amount of time (and some of your larger competitors might be engaging in a discounting war with you in an attempt to bury you once and for all).

If your business needs cash and needs it quickly, discounting might be the only way to shift stock but understand the implications.

Plan, review and adjust

Your budget should be your best estimate of what is likely to occur based on current knowledge. To manage change, you can scenario plan where your budget forms the baseline, but you also forecast best and worst case scenarios based on potential risks and their likelihood (for example, the impact of another lockdown). Or, the simplest method is to use your budget as a baseline and regularly review and adjust depending on current conditions.

The greatest risk to your profit is unlikely to come from your cost structure. It is more likely to be revenue volatility. Keep your eye on your cost structure and make sensible cuts where appropriate. But, in your search for savings don't remove your essential revenue generating capacity that you need.

A lack of profit will eventually erode your business, but not enough cash will kill it stone dead. Businesses will fail because they don't manage their cash position. Plan, track and measure your cashflow. This not only means closely monitoring your debtor collections and inventory but also running a rolling three month cashflow position. This should provide an early warning of brewing problems.

Manage your debt levels carefully (your bank is likely to). While there is nothing wrong with debt, it is likely that the banks will be closely watching customer accounts. Where you have loan facilities in place make sure that you understand the loan terms and any debt covenants that you have entered into. These covenants could include regular reporting to the bank, debtor and working capital ratios, or debt to equity ratios. Where the banks may have been more relaxed about these in the past, this year will be different. If you believe that you need additional funding, talk to your bank early and don't wait until the last minute. You'll need to present your case on why you need it, how much, for how long and when it will be repaid.

Cash flows, operating budgets, cost control and debt management all need to be part of your business management. The more in control you are the lower your risk position.

Understand the external environment

The COVID-19 pandemic has implications well beyond the economy; it has changed how business operates and how consumers act. While comparisons are made to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, the reality is, we have no case study. There is no rule book for the post pandemic road to recovery as this is not an economic event. The pandemic pulls the economy up short curtailing both supply and demand; businesses are not operating at capacity and fewer people are working.

The Federal Budget is released on 6 October and we're expecting to see the Government invest heavily in job creating projects. Many of these will be focussed on infrastructure. Each of these projects will have a flow through effect to the broader economy. We'll bring you our insights the day after the budget and you should loom to see if there are opportunities your business can capture.

Understanding your supply chain is important. Risk manage and plan for changing conditions. For example, what is your business's ability to manage a surge in demand, do you have a small supply base and what would happen if your primary supplier went into bankruptcy, do you have a good flow of information across your supply chain or is there a lack of transparency and knowledge, do transport problems risk your ability to supply? Assess it, understand it, and manage the risks.

When it comes to demand, there is no instant fix. The RBA suggests the decline in GDP in the first half of 2020 is around 7% and the contraction in hours worked around 10%. The economic impact of the restrictions in Melbourne extend well beyond Victoria and are impacting more generally on consumer sentiment. This week we expect Australia to have a formal "recession" label added to our economy, formalising what most business operators already know.

But it is not all bad news with confidence lifting on early signs that revenue is no longer declining for the majority of Australian businesses. The latest ABS data on the impact of COVID-19 shows fewer businesses reported a decline in revenue in August (41%) compared to July (46%), and fewer still expect a decline in September (28%).

However, 35% of businesses expect it to be "difficult or very difficult" to meet financial commitments over the next three months, with small and medium businesses almost twice as likely as large businesses to fall into this category. Understandably, the response to this question is heavily weighted towards those operating under Government required restrictions and lockdowns.

The RBA is working with three scenarios for Australia's economic outlook: a baseline, upside and downside scenario. In the baseline scenario, conditions improve in the second half of 2020 and slowly improve over 2021 and 2022 but fall short of returning to pre COVID forecasts with Victoria's lockdown not materially extended and Australia's international borders remaining closed until mid 2021. The upside scenario saw no extension of the Melbourne lockdown, and further easing of Government restrictions nationally, which in turn bolster consumer confidence, encouraging spending and the reversal of GDP decline over 2020-21. The downside scenario envisages a global resurgence in infections with Australia facing periodic outbreaks and rolling lockdowns. The RBA notes that the downside scenario has a sharper fall than the increase of the upside scenario because of the damage to consumer confidence of further lockdowns.

Business investment is also expected to be relatively flat with the ABS survey showing that 37% of those surveyed had no actual or planned expenditure. Of those that are spending, IT hardware and software, and equipment and machinery topped the list. The instant asset write-off is helping to stimulate business investment in the small and medium business sector. In general, large businesses are paying down debt rather than spending and small and medium businesses have not sought to extend debt to fund investment.
Note: The material and contents provided in this publication are informative in nature only. It is not intended to be advice and you should not act specifically on the basis of this information alone. If expert assistance is required, professional advice should be obtained.

Should you buy or lease your business assets?
By Clarke McEwan August 26, 2025
Should you buy or lease your new equipment? Here are some pros and cons of each. We also can review your financial position, cashflow and cost base to decide whether buying or leasing is the right thing for your business. #businessadvice #SmallBusiness
By Clarke McEwan August 14, 2025
What’s changed? Old rate: 11.5% (up to 30 June 2025) New rate: 12% (from 1 July 2025) This increase affects cash flow, payroll accruals and employment contracts, especially where total remuneration includes superannuation. Employer checklist Update payroll software: ensure systems are calculating 12% SG correctly from 1 July 2025 pay runs. Review employment agreements: if contracts are set to inclusive of super, the take-home pay of employees may reduce unless renegotiated or the employer decides to bear the cost of the increased SG rate. Budget for higher super contributions: consider possible cash flow impacts. Remember that significant penalties can be imposed for late or incorrect SG payments, including loss of deductions, interest and other administration charges. Personal superannuation contributions The annual concessional contribution cap will remain at $30,000 for the 2025/2026 financial year. The annual non-concessional contribution (NCC) cap is set at four times the concessional contribution cap meaning it will also remain at $120,000. Although the annual NCC cap has not changed, NCCs can now be made by individuals with a total super balance (TSB) of less than $2,000,000 on 30 June 2025 (assuming they have not reached the age 75 deadline and any prior bring forward periods are considered). This is due to the fact that the upper TSB limit links to the general transfer balance cap (TBC) which has increased to $2,000,000. Personal deductible contributions A superannuation fund member may be able to claim a deduction for personal contributions made to their super fund with personal after-tax funds. A member will normally be eligible to claim a deduction if: The member makes an after-tax contribution to their superannuation fund in the relevant financial year. They are aged under 67 or 67 to 74 and meet a work test or work test exemption. They have provided the superannuation fund with a valid notice of intent to claim. The super fund has provided the member with acknowledgement of the notice of intent to claim. Notice of intent to claim If the member is eligible and would like to claim a deduction, then they must notify their super fund that they intend to claim a deduction. The notice must be valid and in the approved form – Notice of Intent to Claim or vary a deduction for personal super contributions (NAT 71121). The tax legislation provides a notice of intent to claim will be valid if: • The individual is still a member of the fund • The fund still holds the contribution • It does not include all or part of an amount covered by a previous notice • The fund has not started paying a super income stream using any of the contribution • The contributions in the notice of intent have not been released from the fund that the individual has given notice to under the FHSS scheme • The contributions in the notice of intent don't include FHSSS amounts that have been recontributed to the fund. What you need to consider The member must provide the notice of intent to claim to the fund by the earlier of: • The day the individual lodges their income tax return for the relevant financial year; or  • 30 June of the following financial year in which the individual made the contribution. However, if a super fund member provides a notice of intent after they have rolled over their entire super interest to another fund, withdrawn the entire super interest (paid it out of super as a lump sum), or commenced a pension with any part of the contribution, the notice will not be valid. This means the individual will not be able to claim a deduction for the personal contributions made before the rollover or withdrawal.
By Clarke McEwan August 14, 2025
Let’s take a look at the key features of the tax system dealing with luxury cars and the practical impact they can have on your tax position. Depreciation deductions and GST credits Normally when someone purchases a motor vehicle which will be used in their business or other income producing activities there will be an opportunity to claim depreciation deductions over the effective life of the vehicle. Rather than claiming an immediate deduction for the cost of the vehicle, you will typically be claiming a deduction for the cost of the vehicle gradually over a number of years. Likewise, a taxpayer who is registered for GST might be able to claim back GST credits on the cost of purchasing a motor vehicle that will be used in their business activities. However, when you are dealing with a luxury car the tax rules will sometimes limit your ability to claim depreciation deductions and GST credits, impacting on the after-tax cost of acquiring the car. How does it work? Each year the ATO publishes a luxury car limit which is $69,674 for the 2025-26 income year. If the total cost of the car exceeds this limit, then this can impact the GST credits or depreciation deductions that can be claimed. Let’s assume that Alice buys a new car for $88,000 (including GST) in July 2025. To keep things simple, let’s say Alice uses the car solely in her business activities and is registered for GST. The first issue for Alice is that rather than claiming GST credits of $8,000, her GST credit claim will be limited to $6,334 (ie, 11th x $69,674). We then subtract the GST credits that can be claimed from the total cost, leaving $81,666. As this still exceeds the luxury car limit, Alice’s depreciation deductions will be capped as well. While she actually spent $89,000 on the car, she can only claim depreciation deductions based on a deemed cost of $69,674. The end result is that Alice has missed out on some GST credits and depreciation deductions because she bought a luxury car. Exceptions to the rules There are some important exceptions to these rules. The rules only apply to vehicles which are classified as ‘cars’ under the tax system. That is, the car limit doesn’t apply if the vehicle is designed to carry a load of at least one tonne or it is designed to carry at least 9 passengers. The rules only apply if the vehicle was designed mainly for carrying passengers. The way we determine this depends on the nature of the vehicle and whether we are dealing with a dual cab ute or not. For example, let’s assume Steve buys a ute which is designed to carry a load of at least one tonne. This isn’t classified as a car for tax purposes so Steve won’t miss out on GST credits or depreciation deductions. However, let’s assume Jenny has bought a dual cab ute which is designed to carry a load of less than one tonne and fewer than 9 passengers. This is classified as a car and the luxury car limit will apply unless we can show that it wasn’t designed mainly to carry passengers. As we are dealing with a dual cab ute, we multiply the vehicle’s designed seating capacity (including the driver's) by 68kg. If the total passenger weight determined using this formula doesn’t exceed the remaining 'load' capacity, we should be able to argue that the ute wasn’t designed mainly for the principal purpose of carrying passengers, which means that Jenny should be able to claim depreciation deductions based on the full cost of the vehicle. The approach would be different if we were dealing with something other than a dual cab ute, such as a four-wheel drive vehicle. Luxury car lease arrangements Normally when someone enters into a lease arrangement for a car and they use the car in their business or employment duties there’s an opportunity to claim deductions for the lease payments, adjusted for any private usage. However, if the value of the car exceeds the luxury car limit then the tax rules apply differently. Basically, what happens is that the taxpayer is deemed to have purchased the car using borrowed money. Rather than claiming a deduction for the actual lease payments, instead we will be claiming deductions for notional interest charges and depreciation, subject to the luxury car limit referred to above. Luxury car tax Cars with a luxury car tax (LCT) value which is over the LCT threshold for that year are subject to LCT, which is calculated as 33% of the amount above the LCT threshold. The LCT thresholds for the 2025-26 income year are: $91,387 for fuel-efficient vehicles $80,567 for all other vehicles that fall within the scope of the LCT rules From 1 July 2025 the definition of a fuel-efficient vehicle has changed, meaning that a car will only qualify for the higher LCT threshold if it has a fuel consumption that does not exceed 3.5 litres per 100km (this was 7 litres per 100km before 1 July 2025). Buying a car or other motor vehicle can be a complex process and there will be a range of factors to consider. If you need assistance with the tax side of things please let us know before you jump in and sign any agreements.
By Clarke McEwan August 14, 2025
The purpose of the loan The most important thing when looking at the tax treatment of interest expenses is to identify what the borrowed money has been used for. That is, why did you borrow the money? For interest expenses to be deductible you generally need to show that the borrowed funds have been used for business or other income producing purposes. The security used for the loan isn’t relevant in determining the tax treatment. Let’s take a very simple scenario where Harry borrows money to buy a new private residence. The loan is secured against an existing rental property. As the borrowed money is used to acquire a private asset the interest won’t be deductible, even though the loan is secured against an income producing asset. Redraw v offset accounts While the economic impact of these arrangements might seem somewhat similar, they are treated very differently under the tax system. This is an area to be especially careful with. If you have an existing loan account arrangement, you’ve paid off some of the loan balance and you then use a redraw facility to access those funds again, this is treated as a new borrowing. We then follow the golden rule to determine the tax treatment. That is, what have the redrawn funds been used for? An offset account is different because money sitting in an offset account is basically treated much like your personal savings. If you withdraw money from an offset account you aren’t borrowing money, even if this leads to a higher interest charge on a linked loan account. As a result, you need to look back at what the original loan was used for. Let’s compare two scenarios that might seem similar from an economic perspective: Example 1: Lara’s redraw facility Lara borrowed some money five years ago to acquire her main residence. She has made some additional repayments against the loan balance. Lara redraws some of the funds and uses them to acquire some listed shares. Lara now has a mixed purpose loan. Part of the loan balance relates to the main residence and the interest accruing on this portion of the loan isn’t deductible. However, interest accruing on the redrawn amount should typically be deductible where the funds have been used to acquire income producing investments. Example 2: Peter’s offset account Peter also borrowed money to acquire a main residence. Rather than making additional repayments against the loan balance, Peter has deposited the funds into an offset account, which reduces the interest accruing on the home loan. Peter subsequently withdraws some of the money from the offset account to acquire listed shares. This increases the amount of interest accruing on the home loan. However, Peter can’t claim any of the interest as a deduction because the loan was used solely to acquire a private residence. Peter simply used his own savings to acquire the shares. Parking borrowed money in an offset account We have seen an increase in clients establishing a loan facility with the intention of using the funds for business or investment purposes in the near future. Sometimes clients will withdraw funds from the facility and then leave them sitting in an existing offset account while waiting to acquire an income producing asset. This can cause problems when it comes to claiming interest deductions. First, even if the offset account is linked to a loan account that has been used for income producing purposes, this won’t normally be sufficient to enable interest expenses incurred on the new loan from being deductible while the funds are sitting in the offset account. For example, let’s say Duncan has an existing rental property loan which has an offset account attached to it. Duncan takes out a new loan, expecting to use the funds to acquire some shares. While waiting to purchase the shares, he deposits the funds into the offset account, which reduces the interest accruing on the rental property loan. It is unlikely that Duncan will be able to claim a deduction for interest accruing on the new loan because the borrowed funds are not being used to produce income, they are simply being applied to reduce some interest expenses on a different loan. To make things worse, there is also a risk that parking the funds in an offset account for a period of time might taint the interest on the new loan account into the future, even if money is subsequently withdrawn from the offset account and used to acquire an income producing asset. For example, even if Duncan subsequently withdraws the funds from the offset account to acquire some listed shares, there is a risk that the ATO won’t allow interest accruing on the second loan from being deductible. The risk would be higher if there were already funds in the offset account when the borrowed funds were deposited into that account or if Duncan had deposited any other funds into the account before the withdrawal was made. This is because we now can’t really trace through and determine the ultimate source of the funds that have been used to acquire the shares. To do It’s worth reaching out to us before entering into any new loan arrangements. In this area, mistakes are often difficult to fix after the fact, which can lead to poor tax outcomes. That’s why getting advice from a tax professional before committing to a loan is essential. We can work alongside you to ensure your loan is structured in a way that makes financial sense and protects your tax position. Talk to us about the benefits of forecasting If you want to get in control of the destiny and results of your company, come and talk to us. Forecasting helps you highlight your future threats and opportunities – and create a proactive strategy to improve the performance of your business.
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