Forecasting in a Pandemic

Clarke McEwan Accountants

Understand where you stand now

Businesses fail (or fail to thrive) for a myriad of reasons, but the precursor is often a failure to understand what is occurring and what to monitor. Strategically, managers need to be on top of their numbers to identify and manage problems before they get out of hand. If you do not know what the key drivers of your business are - the things that make the difference between doing well and going under - then it's time to find out.

Understanding your cost structure

Do you know what your real cost of doing business is? Your breakeven point is the level of sales activity where your business is neither making a profit or a loss. Calculate your breakeven point by dividing your fixed expenses by your gross profit margin. This figure represents the level of sales income you need to breakeven.

Understanding your breakeven point is crucial particularly when supply chains are impacted.

Not only will your breakeven point assist you to monitor business performance, it's critical when deciding whether or not to offer a discount. If your breakeven point is well below your current operating level then you have a good buffer in your profits to manage growth, invest in further capital opportunities, and to protect yourself against further downturns in operating performance. And before you say "I know that," ask yourself how many people actually put this theory into practice. Even some of the largest businesses have been caught out on this one and tie up valuable resources in unprofitable projects and products.

Putting up your prices during down times is not an act of social betrayal. If your prices have increased you should flow these through unless you are comfortable making less for the same amount of effort, or you are in an industry that is so price sensitive you have no choice but to follow the lead of larger businesses.

Discounting creates a leverage impact on profits. By discounting you are giving away some or all of your profits. The key is to understand the impact and just how far you can go. For example, a business with a 30% gross profit margin that offers a 25% discount (certainly nothing unusual about that in today's market) needs a 500% increase in sales volume just to maintain the same position – and, in almost all cases, that's just not going to happen. The result generally is that the business trades below its breakeven point and generates a loss. You can only do that for a limited amount of time (and some of your larger competitors might be engaging in a discounting war with you in an attempt to bury you once and for all).

If your business needs cash and needs it quickly, discounting might be the only way to shift stock but understand the implications.

Plan, review and adjust

Your budget should be your best estimate of what is likely to occur based on current knowledge. To manage change, you can scenario plan where your budget forms the baseline, but you also forecast best and worst case scenarios based on potential risks and their likelihood (for example, the impact of another lockdown). Or, the simplest method is to use your budget as a baseline and regularly review and adjust depending on current conditions.

The greatest risk to your profit is unlikely to come from your cost structure. It is more likely to be revenue volatility. Keep your eye on your cost structure and make sensible cuts where appropriate. But, in your search for savings don't remove your essential revenue generating capacity that you need.

A lack of profit will eventually erode your business, but not enough cash will kill it stone dead. Businesses will fail because they don't manage their cash position. Plan, track and measure your cashflow. This not only means closely monitoring your debtor collections and inventory but also running a rolling three month cashflow position. This should provide an early warning of brewing problems.

Manage your debt levels carefully (your bank is likely to). While there is nothing wrong with debt, it is likely that the banks will be closely watching customer accounts. Where you have loan facilities in place make sure that you understand the loan terms and any debt covenants that you have entered into. These covenants could include regular reporting to the bank, debtor and working capital ratios, or debt to equity ratios. Where the banks may have been more relaxed about these in the past, this year will be different. If you believe that you need additional funding, talk to your bank early and don't wait until the last minute. You'll need to present your case on why you need it, how much, for how long and when it will be repaid.

Cash flows, operating budgets, cost control and debt management all need to be part of your business management. The more in control you are the lower your risk position.

Understand the external environment

The COVID-19 pandemic has implications well beyond the economy; it has changed how business operates and how consumers act. While comparisons are made to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, the reality is, we have no case study. There is no rule book for the post pandemic road to recovery as this is not an economic event. The pandemic pulls the economy up short curtailing both supply and demand; businesses are not operating at capacity and fewer people are working.

The Federal Budget is released on 6 October and we're expecting to see the Government invest heavily in job creating projects. Many of these will be focussed on infrastructure. Each of these projects will have a flow through effect to the broader economy. We'll bring you our insights the day after the budget and you should loom to see if there are opportunities your business can capture.

Understanding your supply chain is important. Risk manage and plan for changing conditions. For example, what is your business's ability to manage a surge in demand, do you have a small supply base and what would happen if your primary supplier went into bankruptcy, do you have a good flow of information across your supply chain or is there a lack of transparency and knowledge, do transport problems risk your ability to supply? Assess it, understand it, and manage the risks.

When it comes to demand, there is no instant fix. The RBA suggests the decline in GDP in the first half of 2020 is around 7% and the contraction in hours worked around 10%. The economic impact of the restrictions in Melbourne extend well beyond Victoria and are impacting more generally on consumer sentiment. This week we expect Australia to have a formal "recession" label added to our economy, formalising what most business operators already know.

But it is not all bad news with confidence lifting on early signs that revenue is no longer declining for the majority of Australian businesses. The latest ABS data on the impact of COVID-19 shows fewer businesses reported a decline in revenue in August (41%) compared to July (46%), and fewer still expect a decline in September (28%).

However, 35% of businesses expect it to be "difficult or very difficult" to meet financial commitments over the next three months, with small and medium businesses almost twice as likely as large businesses to fall into this category. Understandably, the response to this question is heavily weighted towards those operating under Government required restrictions and lockdowns.

The RBA is working with three scenarios for Australia's economic outlook: a baseline, upside and downside scenario. In the baseline scenario, conditions improve in the second half of 2020 and slowly improve over 2021 and 2022 but fall short of returning to pre COVID forecasts with Victoria's lockdown not materially extended and Australia's international borders remaining closed until mid 2021. The upside scenario saw no extension of the Melbourne lockdown, and further easing of Government restrictions nationally, which in turn bolster consumer confidence, encouraging spending and the reversal of GDP decline over 2020-21. The downside scenario envisages a global resurgence in infections with Australia facing periodic outbreaks and rolling lockdowns. The RBA notes that the downside scenario has a sharper fall than the increase of the upside scenario because of the damage to consumer confidence of further lockdowns.

Business investment is also expected to be relatively flat with the ABS survey showing that 37% of those surveyed had no actual or planned expenditure. Of those that are spending, IT hardware and software, and equipment and machinery topped the list. The instant asset write-off is helping to stimulate business investment in the small and medium business sector. In general, large businesses are paying down debt rather than spending and small and medium businesses have not sought to extend debt to fund investment.
Note: The material and contents provided in this publication are informative in nature only. It is not intended to be advice and you should not act specifically on the basis of this information alone. If expert assistance is required, professional advice should be obtained.

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Cash is Making a Comeback – Is Your Business Ready to Take It?

By Clarke McEwan • December 3, 2025

The Government has released draft regulations that would require certain retailers to accept cash payments, ensuring Australians can still buy essential goods like groceries and fuel – even when technology fails. The change aims to stop people from being excluded when power, internet, or card systems go down, or when they simply prefer to pay in cash. Who Will Need to Accept Cash – and Who Won’t The new rules are targeted and, importantly, practical. They’ll apply to fuel stations and grocery retailers, including both major supermarket chains and independent operators, but only for in-person transactions under $500. That means you won’t have to accept someone paying for a $700 tyre replacement or bulk farm supplies in cash – it’s about the everyday essentials. If your business (or franchise group) has an annual turnover of less than $10 million, you’ll be exempt. That’s good news for most small businesses such as family-run grocers, local cafés, and corner stores already managing tight margins and staffing challenges. The regulations are expected to take effect from 1 January 2026, with a review after three years to see how the system is working in practice. Why It’s Happening The move comes as part of a broader push to maintain access and fairness in Australia’s payment system. The Government and industry groups have recognised that while most Australians are happy to tap their card or phone, around 10–15% still prefer to use cash – particularly older Australians and those in regional or remote areas. There’s also a resilience angle: during bushfires, floods, or power outages, card networks can go offline. In those moments, cash becomes essential. What This Means for Your Business For larger retailers, this change will mean dusting off cash-handling policies and reintroducing processes that many have phased out. That may include: Re-establishing cash floats and tills Staff training to handle and verify cash More frequent bank deposits and reconciliation procedures For small businesses that fall under the $10 million exemption, the key step will be to document your turnover clearly so you can demonstrate that the exemption applies. We can help ensure your records and structures support that. There may also be commercial upside. Accepting cash could attract a segment of customers who’ve drifted away as stores went digital – especially in regional areas where cash use remains strong. A small business that promotes “cash welcome” could even gain new loyal customers who value convenience and personal service. Preparing for the Change With final regulations expected soon, it’s worth starting to plan now. Review your payment policies, assess whether you’re likely to be caught by the new rules, and budget for any setup or compliance costs. If you’re exempt, ensure your records are watertight. If not, look for ways to streamline cash handling – for example, by using digital cash counters or smart safes to reduce errors and time spent on reconciliations. Looking Ahead Cash isn’t going away just yet. This reform is about maintaining choice, resilience, and fairness in how Australians pay – and ensuring businesses are ready when customers want to use it. If you’d like help assessing how these rules could affect your operations or what the exemption means for your business, get in touch with our team.

Know the Rules Before You Break Them: Why SMSF Education Matters More Than Ever

By Clarke McEwan • December 3, 2025

Why understanding SISA matters You can’t comply with what you don’t know: Many common breaches arise from misunderstanding basic SISA duties (for example, sole purpose, arm’s length dealings, or in-house asset limits). Awareness of the rules is the first step to spotting a problem early. Early identification reduces harm: Knowing what to look for, incorrect benefit payments, related party transactions that aren’t on commercial terms, or records that are incomplete, lets you seek advice before small errors become reportable contraventions. Education protects members: The consequences of a breach can include loss of tax concessions, penalties and remediation costs that reduce retirement savings for members. The ATO’s Focus on Education — What Trustees Need to Know The ATO has recently published a draft Practice Statement (PS LA 2025/D2) explaining when it might issue an education direction under section 160 of SISA. These directions give the ATO power to require trustees (or directors of corporate trustees) to complete specified education, where trustees’ knowledge or behaviour poses a risk to compliance. The draft statement sets out the ATO’s approach and the kinds of circumstances that may lead to an education direction. However, trustees should not wait for an ATO directive before getting educated – such a directive means the trustees have already breached the rules. The draft Practice Statement is intended to support compliance and public confidence, but it is not a substitute for proactive trustee learning. Acting early and voluntarily is both safer for trustees and viewed more favourably by regulators. Practical Steps Trustees Can Consider Use ATO’s official SMSF guidance Start with the ATO’s SMSF courses on the lifecycle of an SMSF, setting up, running and winding up. These courses are written for trustees and prospective trustees: Setting up an SMSF: https://smallbusiness.taxsuperandyou.gov.au/setting-up-a-self-managed-super-fund-smsf Running an SMSF: https://smallbusiness.taxsuperandyou.gov.au/running-a-self-managed-super-fund-smsf Winding up an SMSF: https://smallbusiness.taxsuperandyou.gov.au/winding-self-managed-super-fund-smsf Complete the ATO’s ‘knowledge check’ The ATO provides an online “knowledge check” for each course designed to test trustee understanding. It’s a useful starting point, but note a pass mark of 50% should not be taken as a guarantee of safety. Trustees should consider whether aiming for a much higher standard, even 100% comprehension of core duties, is a more appropriate target to reduce risk. Seek timely professional advice If a knowledge check or your reading flags uncertainty, contact us early to discuss your concerns. Timely, qualified advice often transforms a potential contravention into a routine fix and may mitigate potential penalties or ATO enforcement action. Document your learning and decisions Keep records of training completed, who provided advice, and why investment or payment decisions were made. Good records are persuasive evidence of a trustee’s intent to comply. Final Word SMSF trustees hold both opportunity and responsibility. Learning the SISA rules and the ATO’s expectations is the most practical way to prevent costly mistakes. The ATO’s draft Practice Statement shows the regulator is prepared to use education directions where trustees’ knowledge gaps pose risks, but you shouldn’t wait to be told. Build your knowledge, use the ATO’s resources, complete the knowledge check, document what you learn, and seek professional help confidently and early. That approach better protects your fund and retirement outcomes.

Unlocking Tax Savings: Can Your MBA (or Other Studies) Pay Off at Tax Time?

By Clarke McEwan • December 3, 2025

The ATO’s rules on self-education expenses are strict, and the line between “deductible” and “non-deductible” can be thin. Getting it right could mean thousands back in your pocket; getting it wrong could mean an ATO adjustment, plus interest and penalties. Let’s unpack how it works with a real-world example and some practical takeaways. The Scenario: Sarah’s MBA Sarah works in the Department of Defence and recently completed an MBA through a private provider. Her employer supported her studies with a $40,000 study allowance, and the course fees totalled $18,000. She deferred payment using the FEE-HELP loan system and declared the allowance as taxable income in her return. Now she’s asking: Can I claim a deduction for my MBA fees? Does it matter that I used FEE-HELP? Does the employer allowance change things? The Type of Loan Matters First, not all funding for education courses is treated equally. HECS-HELP - no deduction: If your course is a Commonwealth supported place (most undergraduate and some postgraduate university programs), you can’t claim a deduction. There is specific legislation in the tax system which denies deductions for fees covered by HECS-HELP — even if you pay them upfront and even if the course is closely related to your work. FEE-HELP - potential deduction: If you’re in a full-fee course, your tuition fees might be deductible if the study directly relates to your current employment or business activities. The ATO doesn’t allow a deduction for loan repayments later on — just the course fees themselves. Practical tip: Check your course statement or loan confirmation to see if you’re under HECS-HELP or FEE-HELP. Only FEE-HELP (or private payment) gives you potential deductibility. The “Nexus” Test — Linking Study to Your Current Work Even if the funding passes the first test, the purpose of the study is key. The ATO will only allow deductions if the course maintains or improves the skills you already use in your job, or is likely to increase your income in that same role. It won’t apply if you’re studying to move into a new field or start a different career. The ATO issued a detailed ruling on this topic in 2024 which provides some clear examples: Allowed: A store manager doing an MBA to strengthen leadership and business operations skills. Denied: A sales rep doing an MBA to change careers into consulting — the link to the current role was too weak. For Sarah, the deduction depends on whether her MBA subjects (like strategy, policy or management) build directly on her current Defence role. The fact that her employer funded the course helps demonstrate relevance, but it’s not proof on its own. In some cases you might find that specific subjects or modules are sufficiently linked with current income earning activities, while other subjects are too general in nature for the fees to be deductible. Employer Allowances and HELP Repayments The $40,000 allowance Sarah received is assessable income — it’s taxed just like salary. But that doesn’t stop her from claiming eligible self-education deductions for the course fees. HELP loan repayments later on are not deductible — they’re simply a repayment of debt. The timing of the deduction is based on when the course expense was incurred (not when the loan is repaid). Making It Practical If you’re planning further study or reviewing a recent course, here’s how to make sure you get it right: Check your loan type – FEE-HELP or private fees can be deductible; HECS-HELP cannot. Gather evidence – Keep course outlines, job descriptions, and any correspondence showing the study supports your current work. Claim what’s relevant – You can only claim expenses directly connected to your current job (fees, books, and possibly travel). Be ready for review – Large claims often attract ATO attention. A private ruling can provide peace of mind if the amount is significant. Key Takeaways For many professionals, postgraduate studies like an MBA can deliver both career and tax benefits — but only if they relate directly to your current role. Handled correctly, self-education deductions can return thousands in tax savings. For Sarah, that could mean a refund of over $5,000 on an $18,000 course. If you’re considering further study, talk to us before you enrol or claim. A quick chat could ensure your next qualification delivers the best return — professionally and financially.

Super on Payday: Fundamental Changes for Employers

By Clarke McEwan • December 3, 2025

It’s called Payday Super, and it became law on 4 November 2025. The new rules are designed to close Australia’s $6.25 billion unpaid super gap and make sure employees — especially casual and part-time workers — get their retirement savings when they get paid. What’s Changing? From 1 July 2026, you’ll need to pay superannuation guarantee (SG) contributions at the same time as wages, rather than weeks or months later. Employers will have seven business days from payday to ensure contributions hit employees’ super funds. If payments are late, the Superannuation Guarantee Charge (SGC) will apply — that means paying the missed super plus an interest and administration penalty. Once SGC has been assessed, additional interest and penalties may apply if the SGC liability isn’t paid in full. Unlike the existing system, SGC amounts will normally be deductible to employers, although penalties for late payment of SGC won’t be deductible. On top of this, the ATO will retire the Small Business Superannuation Clearing House (SBSCH) platform from 1 July 2026 for all users and alternative options should be sought. The change isn’t just about compliance — it’s about impact. The Government estimates the earlier payments could boost an average worker’s retirement balance by around $7,700. Why It’s Good for Business This reform might sound like extra admin, and it might take a bit of getting used to, but it can actually simplify your payroll process and strengthen your reputation as an employer. Less admin – Paying super when you run payroll means no more quarterly payment crunches. Fewer compliance risks – ATO data-matching will pick up issues faster, helping you avoid penalties before they snowball. Stronger employee trust – Staff can see their super growing in real time, which might help with engagement and retention. Smoother cash flow management – Paying smaller, regular amounts of super is often easier to manage than large quarterly sums. The ATO will take a “risk-based” approach for the first year, focusing on education and helping businesses transition smoothly. If you pay on time, you’ll likely be flagged as low risk, meaning fewer compliance checks. How to Get Ready — Practical Steps to Take Now You’ve got time before the rules kick in, but the smart move is to prepare early. Here’s how: Check your payroll software. Most modern systems (like Xero, MYOB, or QuickBooks) already support payday-aligned super. Confirm your setup and check if any updates or integrations are needed. Map your pay cycles. Note how often you pay staff (weekly, fortnightly, monthly) and calculate the seven-day payment window for each. Brief your team. Make sure whoever manages payroll understands the changes. The ATO has free online resources and webinars to help. Plan your cash flow. Consider shifting from quarterly to more regular payments now to get used to the timing. Smaller, frequent super payments can reduce cash flow shocks. Monitor and review. Set up a monthly check to ensure super contributions have cleared correctly. Keep an eye on ATO updates as final guidance is released. If you outsource payroll, contact your provider soon — many are already updating systems for Payday Super and can help you make a seamless switch. The Bottom Line Payday Super isn’t just a compliance change — it’s an opportunity to make your payroll more efficient, your staff happier, and your business more compliant with less effort. With the laws now passed and just over 6 months to prepare, it’s time to get ahead of the curve. If you’d like help reviewing your payroll setup or planning the transition, get in touch with our team — we can help you make sure your business is ready to go when Payday Super commences.