Forecasting in a Pandemic

Clarke McEwan Accountants

Understand where you stand now

Businesses fail (or fail to thrive) for a myriad of reasons, but the precursor is often a failure to understand what is occurring and what to monitor. Strategically, managers need to be on top of their numbers to identify and manage problems before they get out of hand. If you do not know what the key drivers of your business are - the things that make the difference between doing well and going under - then it's time to find out.

Understanding your cost structure

Do you know what your real cost of doing business is? Your breakeven point is the level of sales activity where your business is neither making a profit or a loss. Calculate your breakeven point by dividing your fixed expenses by your gross profit margin. This figure represents the level of sales income you need to breakeven.

Understanding your breakeven point is crucial particularly when supply chains are impacted.

Not only will your breakeven point assist you to monitor business performance, it's critical when deciding whether or not to offer a discount. If your breakeven point is well below your current operating level then you have a good buffer in your profits to manage growth, invest in further capital opportunities, and to protect yourself against further downturns in operating performance. And before you say "I know that," ask yourself how many people actually put this theory into practice. Even some of the largest businesses have been caught out on this one and tie up valuable resources in unprofitable projects and products.

Putting up your prices during down times is not an act of social betrayal. If your prices have increased you should flow these through unless you are comfortable making less for the same amount of effort, or you are in an industry that is so price sensitive you have no choice but to follow the lead of larger businesses.

Discounting creates a leverage impact on profits. By discounting you are giving away some or all of your profits. The key is to understand the impact and just how far you can go. For example, a business with a 30% gross profit margin that offers a 25% discount (certainly nothing unusual about that in today's market) needs a 500% increase in sales volume just to maintain the same position – and, in almost all cases, that's just not going to happen. The result generally is that the business trades below its breakeven point and generates a loss. You can only do that for a limited amount of time (and some of your larger competitors might be engaging in a discounting war with you in an attempt to bury you once and for all).

If your business needs cash and needs it quickly, discounting might be the only way to shift stock but understand the implications.

Plan, review and adjust

Your budget should be your best estimate of what is likely to occur based on current knowledge. To manage change, you can scenario plan where your budget forms the baseline, but you also forecast best and worst case scenarios based on potential risks and their likelihood (for example, the impact of another lockdown). Or, the simplest method is to use your budget as a baseline and regularly review and adjust depending on current conditions.

The greatest risk to your profit is unlikely to come from your cost structure. It is more likely to be revenue volatility. Keep your eye on your cost structure and make sensible cuts where appropriate. But, in your search for savings don't remove your essential revenue generating capacity that you need.

A lack of profit will eventually erode your business, but not enough cash will kill it stone dead. Businesses will fail because they don't manage their cash position. Plan, track and measure your cashflow. This not only means closely monitoring your debtor collections and inventory but also running a rolling three month cashflow position. This should provide an early warning of brewing problems.

Manage your debt levels carefully (your bank is likely to). While there is nothing wrong with debt, it is likely that the banks will be closely watching customer accounts. Where you have loan facilities in place make sure that you understand the loan terms and any debt covenants that you have entered into. These covenants could include regular reporting to the bank, debtor and working capital ratios, or debt to equity ratios. Where the banks may have been more relaxed about these in the past, this year will be different. If you believe that you need additional funding, talk to your bank early and don't wait until the last minute. You'll need to present your case on why you need it, how much, for how long and when it will be repaid.

Cash flows, operating budgets, cost control and debt management all need to be part of your business management. The more in control you are the lower your risk position.

Understand the external environment

The COVID-19 pandemic has implications well beyond the economy; it has changed how business operates and how consumers act. While comparisons are made to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, the reality is, we have no case study. There is no rule book for the post pandemic road to recovery as this is not an economic event. The pandemic pulls the economy up short curtailing both supply and demand; businesses are not operating at capacity and fewer people are working.

The Federal Budget is released on 6 October and we're expecting to see the Government invest heavily in job creating projects. Many of these will be focussed on infrastructure. Each of these projects will have a flow through effect to the broader economy. We'll bring you our insights the day after the budget and you should loom to see if there are opportunities your business can capture.

Understanding your supply chain is important. Risk manage and plan for changing conditions. For example, what is your business's ability to manage a surge in demand, do you have a small supply base and what would happen if your primary supplier went into bankruptcy, do you have a good flow of information across your supply chain or is there a lack of transparency and knowledge, do transport problems risk your ability to supply? Assess it, understand it, and manage the risks.

When it comes to demand, there is no instant fix. The RBA suggests the decline in GDP in the first half of 2020 is around 7% and the contraction in hours worked around 10%. The economic impact of the restrictions in Melbourne extend well beyond Victoria and are impacting more generally on consumer sentiment. This week we expect Australia to have a formal "recession" label added to our economy, formalising what most business operators already know.

But it is not all bad news with confidence lifting on early signs that revenue is no longer declining for the majority of Australian businesses. The latest ABS data on the impact of COVID-19 shows fewer businesses reported a decline in revenue in August (41%) compared to July (46%), and fewer still expect a decline in September (28%).

However, 35% of businesses expect it to be "difficult or very difficult" to meet financial commitments over the next three months, with small and medium businesses almost twice as likely as large businesses to fall into this category. Understandably, the response to this question is heavily weighted towards those operating under Government required restrictions and lockdowns.

The RBA is working with three scenarios for Australia's economic outlook: a baseline, upside and downside scenario. In the baseline scenario, conditions improve in the second half of 2020 and slowly improve over 2021 and 2022 but fall short of returning to pre COVID forecasts with Victoria's lockdown not materially extended and Australia's international borders remaining closed until mid 2021. The upside scenario saw no extension of the Melbourne lockdown, and further easing of Government restrictions nationally, which in turn bolster consumer confidence, encouraging spending and the reversal of GDP decline over 2020-21. The downside scenario envisages a global resurgence in infections with Australia facing periodic outbreaks and rolling lockdowns. The RBA notes that the downside scenario has a sharper fall than the increase of the upside scenario because of the damage to consumer confidence of further lockdowns.

Business investment is also expected to be relatively flat with the ABS survey showing that 37% of those surveyed had no actual or planned expenditure. Of those that are spending, IT hardware and software, and equipment and machinery topped the list. The instant asset write-off is helping to stimulate business investment in the small and medium business sector. In general, large businesses are paying down debt rather than spending and small and medium businesses have not sought to extend debt to fund investment.
Note: The material and contents provided in this publication are informative in nature only. It is not intended to be advice and you should not act specifically on the basis of this information alone. If expert assistance is required, professional advice should be obtained.

Leveraging Xero for Medical Practices: The Importance of Monthly Bank Reconciliation
By Clarke McEwan June 12, 2025
Leveraging Xero for Medical Practices: The Importance of Monthly Bank Reconciliation In the evolving world of financial management, the use of cloud-based accounting software like Xero has transformed how businesses, including medical practices, handle their finances. For healthcare providers in Australia, maintaining accurate financial records is crucial, not only for compliance but also for ensuring business efficiency and growth. One of the fundamental accounting processes that support this is regular bank reconciliation. Why Choose Xero for Your Medical Practice? Xero is a user-friendly, cloud-based accounting software designed to simplify day-to-day financial operations. Here are some key reasons why medical practices are increasingly adopting Xero: Streamlined Billing and Invoicing : Xero allows for easy creation and management of invoices, ensuring that patients are billed correctly and efficiently. Real-Time Financial Overview : With Xero, you can access your financial data anytime, anywhere, providing you with a real-time snapshot of your practice's financial health. Integration with Other Systems : Xero integrates seamlessly with a plethora of healthcare management systems, reducing manual data entry and enabling smooth workflow. Efficient Payroll Handling : Automate payroll processing within your practice, helping you manage employee payments and relevant compliance efficiently. The Significance of Regular Bank Reconciliation Bank reconciliation is the process of aligning the records in your practice's accounting system with the corresponding information on your bank statement to ensure both sets of records are accurate. Here’s why doing this every month is vital: 1. Error Detection and Correction Bank reconciliation allows you to spot any discrepancies between your records and the bank's data. This includes identifying double payments, missed transactions, or bank errors that could cost your practice a significant amount if left unchecked. 2. Fraud Prevention By regularly reconciling your accounts, you create an opportunity to detect early signs of fraudulent activity or unauthorized transactions, safeguarding your practice’s funds. 3. Cash Flow Management Accurate reconciliation ensures that your cash flow statement reflects the true financial state of your practice, helping you plan for any financial commitments and investments with confidence. 4. Compliance and Reporting Regular reconciliation ensures your financial statements are accurate, facilitating smoother tax filing and adherence to Australian financial regulations. 5. Financial Decision-Making When reconciled correctly, your financial data becomes a reliable foundation for making strategic business decisions, such as expanding your practice or acquiring new equipment. Incorporating Xero into Your Routine To maximize the benefits of Xero for your medical practice: Schedule Monthly Reconciliation : Set aside dedicated time each month to complete your bank reconciliations without fail. Leverage Automation : Use Xero’s bank feeds to automate transaction imports, which makes the matching and reconciliation process quicker and more efficient. Stay Informed : Regularly review reports generated by Xero to keep abreast of your practice’s financial performance and trends. Consult with Professionals : Collaborate with your accountant or financial advisor to ensure that your reconciliation processes are optimized and aligned with best practices. In conclusion, adopting Xero and maintaining regular bank reconciliations in your medical practice are not merely about staying compliant; they are essential components of robust financial management. They ensure your practice operates smoothly and is prepared for growth, making them indispensable tools in today’s healthcare landscape. Discover how our accounting services can further enhance your financial management processes. Get in touch with us today for tailored solutions to meet the unique needs of your medical practice. To arrange a no obligation meeting please use the link here
Choosing the appropriate business structure is crucial for any doctor setting up a practice in Austr
By Clarke McEwan June 11, 2025
Choosing the appropriate business structure is crucial for any doctor setting up a practice in Australia. The decision not only affects your tax obligations but also significantly impacts asset protection and legal liabilities. This article delves into the primary business structures available to Australian medical professionals and their implications.
By Clarke McEwan June 2, 2025
Individuals Personal income tax cuts: the 2025-26 federal budget introduced a modest income tax cut for all taxpayers from 1 July 2026 and again from 1 July 2027. The tax rate for the $18,201-$45,000 tax bracket will reduce from its current rate of 16%, to 15% from 1 July 2026, then to 14% from 2027-28. The saving from the tax cut represents a maximum of $268 in the 2026-27 year and $536 from the 2027-28 year. Legislation enabling the tax cut passed Parliament on 26 March 2025. $1,000 instant work related expenses tax deduction The Government has committed to providing taxpayers who earn labour income with a $1,000 shortcut work related deduction claim on their tax return. Taxpayers who are likely to have claims higher than $1000 can claim in the usual way. The simplified tax deduction is only available to those earning labour income. Those earning business or investment income only will not be able to claim this shortcut deduction. Taxpayers will be able to claim other non-work related deductions in addition to the instant work related deduction. Energy rebate extended The 2025-26 federal budget extended energy rebates . From 1 July 2025, households and small business will be eligible for a further $150 energy rebate until the end of the 2025 calendar year. The rebates will automatically apply to electricity bills in quarterly instalments. Cheaper home batteries The Government has committed to reducing the cost of home batteries from 1 July 2025 . Through the scheme, households will be able to purchase a typical battery with a 30% discount on installed costs – saving around $4,000 on a typical battery. The initiative extends the existing Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme . 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers The Government has committed to a 5% deposit scheme for all Australian first home buyers . Under the scheme the Government will underwrite eligible first home buyers, enabling them to purchase a property with a 5% deposit without the need for Lenders Mortgage Insurance. Expanding the existing first home buyer scheme, the media release says, “there will be higher property price limits and no caps on places or income, in a major expansion of the existing scheme.” The existing Home Guarantee Scheme is limited in places and subject to income tests. The scheme is open to Australian citizens or permanent residents who have never owned property or land in Australia, or have not owned property or land in Australia in the last 10 years, and available to owner occupiers only. Superannuation Legislation enabling the proposed Division 296 tax on superannuation balances above $3m lapsed when Parliament dissolved. The question now is whether the Government will seek to push this reform through the Senate with the support of The Greens. Greens Senator Nick McKim has previously advocated for the Division 296 threshold to be lowered to $2m and indexed to inflation. In addition, the Senator tied his support for the tax to a “prohibition for super funds to borrow to finance investments.” Originally intended to apply from 1 July 2025, if enacted, Division 296 will increase the headline tax rate to 30% for earnings on total superannuation balances (TSB) above $3m. The proposed calculation captures growth in TSB over the financial year allowing for contributions and withdrawals. This method captures both realised and unrealised gains, enabling negative earnings to be carried forward and offset against future years. Small business Extending the instant asset write-off for small business: An increase to the $1,000 instant asset write-off threshold has been a consistent feature of federal budgets by various governments as an incentive for small business investment. The extension of the increased instant asset write-off threshold to $20,000 for the 2024-25 financial was passed by Parliament on 26 March 2025. The Government has committed to extending the $20,000 instant asset write-off threshold to 30 June 2026 . National small business strategy The Government has released its National small business strategy for consultation. The strategy primarily addresses how different government jurisdictions work with small business and how to relieve some of the friction when dealing across government systems and requirements. Energy Green Aluminium Production Credit: The Government has $2bn set aside for a new Green Aluminium Production Credit to support Australian aluminium smelters switching to renewable electricity before 2036 (there are four of them). If you are wondering why the aluminium industry has been singled out, the reason is two-fold; aluminium is the second most used metal in the world and according to the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, represents about 10% of Australia’s electricity demand - Tomago Aluminium just north of Newcastle in NSW, is the largest single user of electricity in the country with electricity making up about 40% of its costs. Transition from brown to green energy is not just a consumption issue for the industry, it’s a recreation of the value chain. Under the initiative, smelters will be able to negotiate an emissions linked credit contract payable per tonne of green aluminium produced for up to 10 years. The final credit rates will be based on individual facility circumstances and be dependent on reducing Scope 2 emissions. Scope 2 emissions are indirect greenhouse gas emissions associated with the purchase of electricity, steam, heat or cooling. They account for around 85% of emissions from aluminium smelting. See: Aluminium to forge Australia's manufacturing future and Department of Industry, Science and Resources. New Green Aluminium Production Credit will support the transition to green metals.
By Clarke McEwan June 2, 2025
• A mechanic attempting to claim an air fryer, microwave, two vacuum cleaners, TV, gaming console and gaming accessories as work related expenses • A truck driver seeking to deduct swimwear purchased during transit due to hot weather • A fashion industry manager attempting to claim over $10 000 in luxury branded clothing and accessories for work related events. These claims were deemed personal in nature and lacked a sufficient connection to income earning activities. The advice here would be - if in doubt leave it out or run it by us. 2025 priorities The ATO is focusing on areas where frequent errors occur including: • Work related expenses: as above, claims must have a clear connection to income earning activities and be substantiated with records including receipts or invoices. Even if an expense seems to relate to income earning activities, it can’t normally be claimed if it is a private expense. There are a wide range of common expenses that normally don’t qualify for a deduction. • Working from home deductions: taxpayers must prove they incurred additional expenses due to working from home. The ATO offers two methods for calculating these deductions: the fixed rate method and the actual cost method (more detail below). • Multiple income sources: all sources of income, including side hustles or gig economy work must be declared. Each source may have different deductions available. Working from home deductions For those working from home there are two methods to calculate deductions: • Fixed rate method: claim 70 cents per hour for additional running expenses such as electricity, internet and phone usage even if you don’t have a dedicated home office. This method can only be used if you have recorded the actual number of hours you worked from home across the income year. A reasonable estimate isn’t enough. • Actual cost method: claim the actual expenses incurred, with records to substantiate the claims. This method potentially enables a larger deduction to be claimed, but the record keeping obligations are more onerous. It's important to note that double dipping is not allowed. For instance, if you claim deductions using the fixed rate method you can’t separately claim a deduction for your mobile phone costs.  As always, if you’re unsure or need help with your tax return please reach out.
By Clarke McEwan June 2, 2025
Annual NFP self-review return From the 2023–24 income year, non-charitable NFPs with an active Australian Business Number (ABN) are required to lodge an annual NFP self-review return with the ATO. This return notifies the ATO of the organisation's eligibility to self-assess as income tax exempt. The return has three sections: • Organisation details: standard information on the NFP. • Income tax self-assessment: confirmation of the organisation's income tax exempt status. • Summary and declaration: acknowledgement of the information provided. When the return is being completed the NFP must answer ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to the question: ‘Does the organisation have and follow clauses in its governing documents that prohibit the distribution of income or assets to members while it is operating and winding up?’ This requirement needs to be satisfied in order for the NFP to self-assess its position as a tax exempt entity. If a NFPs governing documents don’t have these clauses then it can still self-assess as income tax exempt for the 2024 income year as long as no income or assets have been distributed to members. As a transitional arrangement, the ATO is allowing NFPs until 30 June 2025 to update their governing documents. Failing to do this will mean that the organisation cannot self-assess as income tax exempt from 1 July 2024 for the 2025 income year, which would lead to the organisation being treated as a taxable entity that might then need to lodge a tax return. Mandatory clauses in governing documents Governing documents are the formal documents which set out the purpose of the organisation, its character and the rules and requirements for how decisions are made, how it operates and how long it operates for. A s noted above, NFPs must include specific clauses in their governing documents to selfassess as income tax exempt. These clauses must: • Prohibit the distribution of income or assets to members during the organisation's operation and on winding up. • Ensure that any surplus assets are transferred to another NFP with similar purposes upon dissolution. NFPs should also ensure that there are sufficient controls in place to ensure that members don’t receive income, property or assets which belong to the organisation, except where they are receiving remuneration for work performed for the entity or a reimbursement of expenses incurred on behalf of the organisation.  The advises that NFP governing documents should be reviewed at least annually or whenever there is a major change to the structure or activities of the organisation. An annual general meeting is a good time to review governing documents. Taking a proactive approach helps identify any issues and reinforces your organisation's commitment to good governance.
By Clarke McEwan June 2, 2025
The other was a decline in Government spending. Mr Trump’s tariffs are deflationary for the world and inflationary for the US. The sharp weakening in soft economic data points to rising recession risks, although markets still only seem priced for a mild slowdown which now seems right given the backdown. It is no surprise that China announced a new stimulus package including interest rate cuts and a significant liquidity injection, as the Government looks to boost an economy that has been hit by the collapse in the property market and now the trade war with the US. China’s factory activity contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April following the frontloading of orders to beat the tariffs. Trade talks between the US and China have driven market optimism over the past few weeks and sentiment has turned positive. The US-China deal has 30% import taxes on Chinese goods, which could still stem trade flow. The trade announcement with the UK has disappointed many in the market as it kept the 10% tariff on imports into the US up from 3.4%. The EU hasn’t even begun negotiations with the US. In Australia, the election has come and gone fairly uneventfully for financial markets. We are waiting on GDP data to be released in the next few weeks which should confirm a sluggish economy given consumer spending remains weak. The RBA has cut interest rates and this should underpin mild growth. The outlook for financial markets remains one of uncertainty reflected by the increase in volatility. Tight policy, lingering inflation risks and tariff-related drag still weighs on markets. What seems to have been achieved so far is a whole lot of volatility and the realisation the US needs China as much as China needs the US. Within the Australian share market there was a notable softening in outlook statements by company management in the recent reporting season. With full-year forecasts being revised lower, it is reasonable to suggest that marketwide earnings growth is slowing, with expectations moderating for the rest of this year and potentially into the next.
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